Record, Round Two: 6-11
Overall Record: 9-19
Total Outlay, Round Two: $1,225.00
Total Winnings, Round Two: $1,268.49 (?)
Gain, Round Two: $43.49 (?)
Overall Loss: $227.16
Is this right? I get almost twice as many picks wrong as I do right, but mostly due to hitting a three-team parlay on the first games of the second round Saturday (Dayton, UConn and Louisville), which gave me winnings of $595.79, I was able to eke out a fractional gain for the weekend. I checked the math twice, and that's what it gave me. Buddha bless the parlay. Sure, I'm still down, but after compiling six wins and 11 losses I thought I would be almost a grand in the hole, and I'm far away from that.
One other observation: My winning bets, beyond $100 on Louisville, were ones I had no confidence in -- the Flyers and Huskies, plus Stanford and Kentucky. I went Against The Spread and Straight-Up on Oregon, Mercer and Stephen F. Austin, and all three underdogs failed me. The triple-double taps weren't fatal, but if I was successful on even one of them (and I included all three teams in the other three parlays I "wagered"), I would have been closer to positive territory.
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Sixteen teams, twelve games ... the analysis and choices should be much more manageable. I think this tournament will be no different others in the past in that the upsets should quiet down, if not be done. Therefore, here are my picks for Thursday and Friday ... and I think I have time to write a little bit as to why I'm choosing them:
1) Baylor +3 1/2 (I'm starting to think Scott Drew can coach. He can certainly recruit. His calling card continues to be big, athletic guys, and I think they'll run roughshod down low over passive, short Wisconsin, a team I still don't think is that good. So not only should you Quadruple Best Bet this ATS ...) $200
2) Baylor M/L +144 (... but you should also bet on the Bears Double Straight-Up) $100
3) Arizona-San Diego St. Under 121.5 (I don't think the Aztecs can win this game, so I imagine it playing out whereby the Wildcats' suffocating defense just paralyzes Steve Fisher's ballclub, and so Arizona doesn't have to score that much in order to win. At least that's what I'm hoping happens) $50
4) Michigan -2 1/2 (I'm in this huge pool of 800+ people. It's $20 a head, and 54% goes to the winner. Second-place receives $20 of the pot I think, which I think this year is $3,600. The guy running the thing has software that maps out best and worst finishes for everyone, and somehow I'm still eligible to finish second in this group. But I know that it all hinges on Tennessee doing what I thought they could do this time last week and upset the Wolverines. Which means I don't think it'll happen. This is an interesting contrast between Michigan's deadly three-point shooting and the Volunteers' interior braun and hellacious rebounding. I'm just afraid that Tennessee can't guard the perimeter and Michigan will be lights-out from three. Call me a pessimist. Quadruple Best Bet this) $200
5) Louisville -4 1/2 (Kentucky has a lot of NBA-ready talent, which is why any team should be good at March Madness; it's the best way to take advantage of the "all eyes on me" scouting as they see dollar signs dancing in their heads when they declare for the NBA Draft as soon as their college "career" is over. Saying that, I think their win over Wichita St. proved that the Shockers weren't that good. Which means that the Wildcats' run ends against the Cardinals, which have the defense and should be able to pick apart Kentucky on the transition. One ESPN.com journalist believes the Cards are going to win by double digits. I'm inclined to agree with him, even though Louisville only has to beat UK by 4 1/2. Triple Best Bet this) $150
6) Parlay 1), 4) and 5), for $100.
Good luck!
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