Sunday, February 9, 2025

Super Bowl LIX Prediction

OK, I have no idea what in the hell is going to happen tonight.  I sometimes do these super-specific predictions about how the Game is going to go, like Patrick Mahomes is going to throw for "x" number of Yards, or Saquon Barkley is going to get so many Touchdowns, etc.  I can't do any of that here.  These teams are so evenly matched that I can't find an in on any way this Super Bowl will play out.  I hope that means it's going to be good.  But I can't predict anything.

I will say this: I want the Kansas City Chiefs to win.  I'm not hot with the name, the family who owns the franchise apparently are Trump humpers, Mahomes's wife and her family are MAGAts, the Kicker is a MAGAt, and I am not a fan of dynasties, which the Chiefs would extend to three in a row if they are victorious tonight.  But I like Mahomes, I like Travis Kelce, I think Taylor Swift is a good person and so if she has Kelce as a boyfriend, that means he's a good guy, and I love watching their brand of football, on both sides of the ball.  Oh, and I hate Philadelphia Eagles fans.  They're fucking brutes, and I will never forgive them for beating up Vikings fans when the Vikes played in Philly in that NFC Championship Game several Years back.  (I will say I like the Philadelphia Inquirer for standing up to Trump, and I will forgive the fanbase if I see proof the city stands up to Trump as well.)

When I research my super-specific predictions, I read two big essays I have turned to for years: Aaron Schatz, who founded Football Outsiders but now pens his Super Bowl essay for FTN Fantasy, and Bill Barnwell of ESPN.  After reading both breakdowns (and if you want to preview the Super Bowl, I would recommend you commit some time to reading both), I still don't know what's going to happen because neither Schatz nor Barnwell know what is going to happen, either.  Both writers point out things that the football viewer might not know:
  • Kansas City Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo blitzes a lot.
  • Philadelphia Eagles Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio does not blitz a lot.
  • Eagles Quarterback Jalen Hurts has gotten better at throwing against the blitz.
  • This will be a tight Game.
  • The Chiefs just have it.
And it's that last "point," if you will, that lead both writers to pick Kansas City to win Super Bowl LIX.  The Eagles are a tremendous team, and better than the one that lost to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII.  But Mahomes and Kansas City Head Coach Andy Reid have a track record of making the right play at the right time to secure a close victory, and Schatz and Barnwell think that will happen tonight.

So who am I to argue?

Super Bowl LIX Prediction: Kansas City 30, Philadelphia 24

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