I wonder whether Joe Lunardi, Andy Glockner, and all the other NCAA Tournament prognosticators will say they try to predict the college basketball teams that "should" be in the Big Dance, not who "will" be. Because if it's the latter, they had a poor, poor year.
The four schools that comprise teams 61-4, aka the lowest-seeded teams that won't need to play the play-in games, were, when I added up all the pundits' picks together, Michigan St., Colorado, Clemson, and Virginia Tech. Well, Clemson's in the play-in -- and Colorado and Virginia Tech are out of the Big Dance altogether.
What they all "agreed" were the Last Four In were Illinois, Georgia, USC and, in a gap of my methodology, Harvard. Illinois and Georgia are safely in; the Crimson are out.
The Last Four Out, as far as I can gather: St. Mary's, Alabama, VCU and UAB. The latter two are in the play-ins, and the committee is getting killed for their inclusions.
Me, I'm not that bent out of shape. When you're dealing with 68 teams, the last at-large selections will be made from a very unimpressive pile. Schools with such medicore CV's is testament that the field should not have been expanded, and in fact should be cut back to 64. If this means that my alma mater doesn't get in, that's OK, they didn't really deserve it.
Nevertheless, it's kind of a black eye for the progs. They use logic, but the committee, bless their souls, devise the bracket in secret, so the surprises are real surprises. If there's one thing you can point to as the difference between what the experts thought were going to be the invitees and who actually were invited, look at nonconference strength of schedule. Colorado and Virginia Tech played cupcakes before the New Year and were punished for it, regardless of their record. Meanwhile, USC and VCU actually tried to play against good teams out of their league, and even if their total records are similar to the Buffaloes and Hokies, they got in based on effort. They're invited because they tried.
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