2014 World Cup Predictions

I'm excited.  I'm really getting into the World Cup.  Started four years ago, but I think I'm going to really immerse and simmer in it this time around.  I like it for the global spectacle; only the Olympics are a bigger and more important world sporting event.  But I also like it because it comes in the summer, where traditionally the sports consist of baseball, the WNBA, and individual sports like golf and tennis.  Sure, I wish the tournament in Brazil came about a month later; it's starting right in the thick of the NBA and Stanley Cup Finals, and it'd be better suited to where it was in the calendar four years ago, just after the Major League Baseball All-Star Game.  But I will be listening to the very start of the first game of the tournament at 3 in the afternoon at work when the Brazilians take on the Croats, and I'll try to follow closely for the whole month, even through the family roadtrip.

The U.S. chances?  Between slim and none.  Armchair prognosticators at first gave the Americans zero chance.  Then advanced stats people (and yes, there are now some in soccer) say that Germany will run away from the rest of the U.S.'s group, but we are not as far away from Portugal as many of us think.  My feeling?  There's a 50/50 chance we'll lose to Ghana and finish dead last in the tourney.  There is a darker-than-completely-faint chance that we'll finish scoreless.  I only say that because the recent history of Team USA shows that they alternate reaching the knockout stage/playoffs with group play flameouts, and they won their group in spectacular fashion four years ago, so that means they'll crap out this time around.

Other idle observations:

• While Group G (the Americans' group) has been routinely called the "Group of Death," probably because I have only heard my fellow Americans say it while living here in America, more sophisticated palates understand that Group D (Uruguay, Italy, England, Costa Rica) ain't no great shakes, either.  Neither, by the way, is Group B (Spain, Chile, Netherlands, Australia).
• On the flip side, people are pointing to Group H (Belguim, Russia, Algeria, South Korea) as the easiest group, but Group F is basically a walkover for Argentina, which should run all over Bosnia-Herzegovina, Iran and Nigeria.

This is the first time (or maybe the second; the first may have been a few or even several World Cups ago, when I was asked to participate in a fantasy WC tournament from a friend) that I tried prognosticating the WC.  I'm relying on two things: The predictions from FiveThirtyEight, whose founder, Nate Silver, pioneered the Soccer Power Index (SPI), which looks to be much more accurate and predictive than the official FIFA rankings, and ESPN.com brand new Giant Killers model and blog.  In fact, I should say that I'm picking winners based on Silver's projections, and most of the teams that'll finish second in their group by going all-in on what Giant Killers say are underrated teams.  Underrated doesn't mean they'll make the playoffs.  Nevertheless I put them all through.

The one thing I want to know is: How often do upsets occur?  I really don't think Iran nor Costa Rica have a chance to advance, but fuck, what do I know?  Are World Cups more chalk than, say the NCAA men's basketball tournament?  If so, that would be some good information to ascertain.

Who advances, in order, out of Group:

A: Brazil, then Mexico
B: Spain, then Chile
C: Columbia, then Greece
D: Uruguay, then Costa Rica
E: Ecuador, then France
F: Argentina, then Iran
G: Germany, then Portugal
H: Russia, then Belgium

I then go kind of nuts:

Eighthfinals:

• Brazil over Chile
• Spain over Mexico
• Colombia over Costa Rica
• Uruguay over Greece
• Ecuador over Iran
• France over Argentina (kind of ridiculous having the French finish second, but the WC can't all be chalk, right?  Midfielder Franck Ribery is hurt and will miss the WC, and that's why I thought they French will finish second in Group E, thus setting up a way-too-early mouth-watering match-up in the eighths against the Argentines -- which, while many people tout as a contender, to me still seems like Lionel Messi & Co.  If that's the case, I'll take the team, Ribery-less though they may be, over the individual, even if he may beat Pele as The Greatest Soccer Player Of All-Time)
• Belgium over Germany (my other shock pick.  The Germans have defensive issues and their psyche is considered to be fragile, thus allowing a Belgium side with a lot of frisky youngsters to spring the upset of yet another contender)
• Russia over Portugal (and don't sleep on the Russians, either; I think their defense will suffocate the Portuguese, who, like Argentina, is just one guy, Christiano Ronaldo)

Quarterfinals:

• Brazil over Colombia
• Spain over Uruguay
• Belgium over Ecuador (guess that makes the Belgians the Cinderella of the 2014 World Cup)
• France over Russia

Semifinals:

• Brazil over Belgium
• Spain over France

Third-Place Game (who cares?  What sport in the world still plays a third-place game?): Belgium over France

Final: Brazil over Spain (ETA at 11:18--11:23 p.m. Thursday, June 12 a note about Brazil.  I know that there are currently massive protests over the largesse of building for the World Cup at the expense of social programs designed to help the large swaths of the country's poor and bridging the gap of income inequality there.  But as is so often the case, I don't know if the protesters are aiming their ire at the team itself.  While there is pressure to win on home soil, I don't think the off-the-field turmoil wants them to lose.  The country is supporting Team Brazil, therefore I think that's one obstacle that's being raised that isn't quite accurate.)