Players To Draft And Not To Draft, According To The Talented Mr. Roto's 100 Facts

Both of my fantasy football leagues auction tomorrow.  One of them, the one where I bet money, was in dire danger of falling apart because two people decided they didn't want to do it anymore and decided to ditch all of us.  So after canvassing friends, we decided to merge the remaining members of this league to one with my best friend's friends from MIT.

Moreover, after much hot potato, I have been anointed commissioner.  My first order of business: Push up the time of my other auction, the one that's free (and the one where I have been commish for years), up so that I can at least stagger the start times.  This way, I can concentrate on one and maybe slack off on that after I get all my main guys and turn my attention to the other one.  I screwed my friend's lunch date, but I think he understands.

Fuck, two auctions at the same time???  I haven't done a whole lot of research, what with The Store and Grandmother and my sister being in town and my car and all that shit.  But one thing I have keyed in on, perhaps unwisely, is the annual 100 Facts presented by ESPN's Matthew Berry, aka The Talented Mr. Roto.

As a read, it's kind of a slog, and if you have read a lot of his work, he digresses a lot.  I feel bad saying this, but a lot of his tangents concerns his rough childhood, particularly the presence of depression in his family's life.  I read and I feel my buzz kind of killed; I just wanted to know what Mr. Berry thought about who should be picked first overall.  However, that honesty has an upside: He is one of a handful of writers who admits, straight up, that what he predicts is often full of shit.  This 100 Facts article may be his best in that regard: He does not gloss over the reality that he, and other people who have made their living writing about fantasy sports, deploy only certain facts as the basis for their opinions, and disregard the rest even though they may turn out to be valid, even the truth.  Berry doesn't hold himself to be Señor Hotshit; he has done more research than the reader, but even he comes clean that he doesn't know what's going to happen.  Some people might be angry and interpret that as confessing he's not an "expert."  I find that refreshing.

So because of that -- and again, I might be taking a risk, and even Mr. Berry would say that -- I will rely on his 100 Facts.  And hopefully he won't be mad that, because he often piles presents facts about one player in consecutive facts, I will condense them down just into what you should do, particularly who you should draft and who you shouldn't.

Follow along with his article for what he specifically said, or you can just follow the conclusions combining the numbered facts below:

• 1-7: DO NOT draft Cam Newton; he started fast and faded fast.
• 8-12: DO NOT draft Peyton Manning; he's playing outdoors all but once.
• 13-4: DO draft Carson Palmer -- not as your QB1, but don't be scared away from him.
• 15-8: DO draft Robert Griffin III -- though Berry admits RG3 gets him wet.
• 19-21: DO draft Ryan Fitzpatrick -- his tailing stats at the end of the season were due to his cracked ribs.
• 22-4: DO NOT draft Mark Sanchez; he and his receivers will be a shambles.
• 25-6: DO NOT draft Ben Roethlisberger; his offensive line will allow him to be knocked on his ass nearly the whole game.
• 27-30: DO draft Philip Rivers -- the two San Diego Chargers receivers with the most drops (Mike Tolbert and Vincent Jackson) are no longer on the team.
• 31-2: DO draft Michael Vick -- he's money passing in the red zone
• 33-4 DO draft Josh Freeman -- people are scared away, but the interceptions he threw at least were accurate passes to his receivers.
• 35-9: DO NOT draft Michael Turner; he faded badly the whole year, and especially down the stretch.
• 40-7: DO draft BenJarvus Green-Ellis -- the grossly undervalued running back delivers from the 20, and he is now the featured back in Cincinnati.
• 48-51: DO draft Steven Jackson -- new St. Louis Rams coach Jeff Fisher has a history of using his running backs.
• 52-8: DO NOT draft Frank Gore; signs indicate San Francisco will take away his workload.
• 59: DO draft Donald Brown -- his stats rose in the second half of last year.
• 60-3: DO NOT draft Andre Johnson; Houston primarily runs, and he has never been the elite fantasy wide receiver we once thought he was.
• 64-9: DO draft Brandon Marshall -- in Chicago he is reunited with quarterback Jay Cutler and quarterbacks coach Jeremy Bates, the two people who were part of his career years with the Denver Broncos.
• 70-1: DO NOT draft Dwayne Bowe; he has the dropsies.
• 72-6: DO draft Brandon Lloyd -- perennially underrated receiver now has Tom Brady throwing to him deep.
• 77-9: DO draft A.J. Green -- but on a flyer, as he should be a great end zone target.
• 80: DO draft Roddy White -- he led receivers last year on third-down receptions for a first down.
• 81-6: Special two-fer: DO draft Antonio Brown and DO NOT draft Mike Wallace.
• 87-8: DO draft Torrey Smith -- he's becoming a legitimate home run threat.
• 89-90: DO NOT draft Joe Flacco; he's becoming more inaccurate.
• 91-3: DO draft Randall Cobb -- great hands and yards-after-catch.
• 94-6: DO draft Jacob Tamme -- Peyton Manning loves to throw to tight ends, and they used to be teammates in Indianapolis.
• 97-9: DO draft Brandon Pettigrew -- he can blow up as an end zone target.
• 100: Do draft Tony Gonzalez -- still good, still productive, still relied upon.

Mental note: These are the players I should select:

1. Carson Palmer, QB, OAK
2. Robert Griffin III, QB, WAS
3. Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, BUF
4. Philip Rivers, QB, SD
5. Michael Vick, QB, PHI
6. Josh Freeman, QB, TB
7. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, CIN
8. Steven Jackson, RB, STL
9. Donald Brown, RB, IND
10. Brandon Marshall, WR, CHI
11. Brandon Lloyd, WR, NE
12. A.J. Green, WR, CIN
13. Roddy White, WR, ATL
14. Antonio Brown, WR, PIT
15. Torrey Smith, WR, BAL
16. Randall Cobb, WR, GB
17. Jacob Tamme, TE, DEN
18. Brandon Pettigrew, TE, DET
19. Tony Gonzalez, TE, ATL

And these are the players I should not select:

1. Cam Newton, QB, CAR
2. Peyton Manning, QB, DEN
3. Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ
4. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT
5. Michael Turner, RB, ATL
6. Frank Gore, RB, SF
7. Andre Johnson, WR, HOU
8. Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC
9. Mike Wallace, WR, PIT
10. Joe Flacco, QB, BAL