Overall Record: 21-27
Total Outlay, Round 4: $800.00
Total Winnings, Round 4: $859.09
Total Gain, Round 4: $59.09
Up-To-Date Loss: $713.63
I am actually shocked that I won money this Round, the first time I have this tournament. My instinct that I would do better in even Rounds when teams play on short turnaround was evident here; I was right on three of my four Game picks, though I was lucky to get Houston-Oregon St. Under 129 because the total number of Points scored in that Game was 128 -- phew! Unfortunately, I played all four Elite Eight Games, and I put that loss, Baylor-Arkansas Under 148 in both of the parlays I fake-wagered. (It is kind of remarkable that Total wound up at 153 -- it's as if the oddsmakers are rigging the Games!) If I had just not played that bet at all, I would be in much better shape than I am now.
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With that being said, I still have a large hole to climb out of, and now my only instinct is to get into positive territory. That means big swings and misses; either I finish with pennies to my name, or I have to make one big-ass bet for the championship Game.
I rather would not do that, win on my one big bet for today, and be done with it. But I can't get a read on either matchup, and I don't like the Lines nor the Totals. So what do I do?
I'll say this: When it comes to my actual gambling, in particular the big pool, I am in contention to hit the money. That's a hell of an accomplishment for someone who has been closer to the bottom than the top. I've done that because both of my finalists, Gonzaga and Houston, are still alive. But like I said, I don't have any confidence on making bets on either of their Games. So, do I continue to have faith in myself, or do I, essentially, Anti-Pick myself?
1) Houston +5 (Shit, man, I don't know. People are expecting a Gonzaga-Baylor final, two teams that were supposed to meet during the regular season but was scuttled because the Bears suffered an outbreak of COVID-19. The Bears and the Bulldogs have been the two most impressive teams in The Big Dance, and it would be no surprise if they both triumphed handily today. But I'm going to take a deep breath and say that the Cougars at least keep it close. Both teams are hellacious rebounders on their own glass, but Baylor has been sort-of deficient grabbing opponents' missed shots. That is the only decisive advantage Houston has; exploiting that gap is necessary for the Cougars to win [and, by the way, for me to do well enough in my big pool that I am guaranteed some payout after the tournament is over]. I want to believe Houston Head Coach Kelvin Sampson knows that, he will be keen enough to shift his strategy to an underdog one, and tell his players to clean up their own misses in order to extend possessions and, ultimately, to score the upset. By the way, Sampson has been in Indiana the past few Weeks. He was once the Head Coach at Indiana [who are trying to find a new HC, by the way, after firing Archie Miller] but was fired after he violated NCAA rules. I wonder if the local fans are giving him any shit -- and if it's motivation for him to keep winning) $800
Good luck!
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