Record, Round 4: 1-6
Overall Record: 13-36
Total Outlay, Round 4: $1,600.00
Total Winnings, Round 4: $477.25
Total Loss, Round 4: $1,122.75
Overall Loss: $2,655.30
Well, fuck my goddamn life again. Michigan St. turned out to be the Cinderella I didn't think they would be; I had them losing in the real first round to Georgia. (Louisville Forward Mangok Mathiang, why the hell couldn't you hit that goddamn free throw?!) And Gonzaga failed, yet again, to take the final steps to the Promised Land of the Final Four that George Mason, VCU, Butler and Wichita St. already have -- stepping over the Bulldogs along the way, by the way.
And the two games where I bet on the total was a total shitshow. The total went 30 points over the O/U because, I think, Sam Dekker started getting hot from behind the arc and Arizona couldn't help but pick up the pace and score, which they did, even though they obviously didn't win. $350, gone.
As for picking the Over 136 in Kentucky-Notre Dame ... well, I didn't think about this game at all, and if you look at my record so far this tournament, you could understand why I decided not thinking would be better for me. I didn't think the Irish could hang with them, but what do I know? So I thought Notre Dame would, and naturally I thought Notre Dame would do it by being Notre Dame, as in scoring at will. But they didn't score at will, really; they spread out Kentucky, the Wildcats got really scared that they would rain jumpers on them (a fear that I think was unfounded; as good as the Irish are, I say let them shoot so you can collect any rebound off a miss), they ran the shot clock down and, shockingly, they scored in the paint. And when they missed in the paint, Notre Dame got more than their fair share of rebounds because they spread out Kentucky. It's a damn miracle that the Wildcats won, but they did it in a slugfest, not a shootout. $200, gone.
So I went big and lost big, more than $1,100. I think the $2,600 may be the biggest hole I have ever faced since starting Anti-Picks. Also, $2,600 may be the total amount of repairs I'm doing on my car. I don't know if the fix this mechanic did on my car yesterday worked, because I think my hiccuped on my way to this new coffeeshop close to the place I exercise at. May talk about this soon.
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So, what now? My main goal at this point is to get out of this hole, profit be damned. No use taking steps; either I get it all back with one chunk or I fall into twice the size of the big hole I'm in now. If the latter, I at least have the championship game on Monday. But if I win today, I think I'll be done with it.
So, which one? Fuck the Over/Unders. I suck at them. How about Kentucky-Wisconsin? Now people are saying that the Badgers can stay close with the Wildcats the same way Notre Dame did, and those same people will point out Wisconsin plays better defense and rebounds better than the Irish did. That could be true. Or, Dekker can run into a cold streak and the 'Cats could double-team Associated Press Player Of The Year Frank Kaminsky into a less-than-teens point total and they could run away with it. I have no clue, so no bet.
That leaves Duke-Michigan St. I can't help but like Tom Izzo, but they are the 7-seed outlier in a Final Four where the other 3 1-seeds reached the third and final weekend. Also, in retrospect, they reached Indianapolis with a fairly easy schedule, taking out a 2-seeded Virginia team that couldn't recover their offensive mojo and a fairly generic Oklahoma squad. What they did against Louisville shows grit, but hey, Mathiang could have ended their Cinderella run -- should have ended -- with a free throw. Can they really pull off another stunner against a sturdy Blue Devils club? Will they ruin a potential Kentucky-Duke final, where basketball fans will root against both teams? No.
Then again ...
1) Michigan St. +5 1/2 (... they can lose by a close margin. Maybe the Spartans will keep it close, surprise Duke by protecting the paint and grabbing most of the loose balls [an Izzo point of emphasis] I have written down what I think will happen, but again, I'm sucking at betting this Big Dance, so I might as well go against my logic and wager the opposite. Yes, I'm Anti-Picking my Anti-Pick. What the hell, right?) $3,000
Good luck.
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