Record, Round 5: 0-1
Overall Record: 13-37
Total Outlay, Round 5: $3,000.00
Total Winnings, Round 5: $0.00
Total Loss, Round 5: $3,000.00
Overall Loss: $5,655.30
Tom Izzo is going to pull out another miracle, they say. The scrappy underdog is going to take it to Duke, they say. Duke is vulnerable, they say. OK, I don't know who "they" are. But I got caught up in the narrative that Michigan St.'s grit and rebounding is going to keep them in the Final Four semifinal against the Blue Devils.
There was a was a point early in my bracket where I had Duke losing in the second round to San Diego St. A 1-seed has to fall that early in the tournament, no? But then I looked at their defensive efficiency rank at Ken Pomeroy's site and realized that this isn't the sieve they were in the middle of the season, so I dialed back on my reckless bracketing and put them through to the regional final, where I had them losing to Gonzaga. I should have put them into Monday's final, of course, but at least I had the good sense to get them that far. They showed that strength in routing the Spartans Saturday -- Jahlil Okafor and Tyus Jones, their shutdown perimeter defense, the ability to score in waves at times. What I'm trying to say is that, maybe, I should respect that Duke could pour it on on the Spartans. Twenty points' worth of pouring it on, in fact.
And so I am down $5,655.30 in mythical bucks, by far the greatest hole I have ever faced in doing Anti-Picks. God, I suck.
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So, how the fuck will this game go? Obviously I have no clue. Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker could continue to shoot the lights out ... or they could go cold when it counts the most. Okafor could continue to not miss in the paint ... or he could get into foul trouble early and alter Duke's offensive gameplan. The Blue Devils could bomb it from deep ... or they could revert to their cold snap in the middle of the season and not be able to throw a spear into the ocean.
One thing I have observed: The Badgers are scoring very well despite wanting to slow down the game. Why do that if you can outscore your opponent? So even though the sharps usually pound the Under, I could see Dekker remaining hot and Kaminsky being able to work on the down low against the Duke bigs that have to guard him so Okafor can remain on the court. That would mean that the Blue Devils will have to both run against Wisconsin (the more transition points they get, the greater the chance Duke will win) and rain threes in order to catch up. And what the hell, I think they will, resulting in a shootout:
1) Duke-Wisconsin Over 139.5 (How did Wisconsin become the favorite all of a sudden? The current line is Badgers -1, when Duke has been the "better" team throughout the year. Is this a case of recency bias, not unlike Michigan St. being a live underdog? Yeah, I learned my lesson. Hopefully I'll learn it in time to erase all my fucking debt) $6,500
Good luck!
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