Final Bubble Watch

I love this time of year, usually.  My birthday coincides with the NCAA men's basketball tournament, The Best Three Weeks In American Sport.  This year, though, is unique because March 17 falls so early compared to the college basketball season.  In fact, I don't remember the last time St. Patrick's Day was the same day as Selection Sunday -- which, as I think back, I anticipate just as much as, if not more than, the beginning of the Big Dance Thursday afternoon (I know, I know, the tourney technically starts with the "First Four" games Tuesday, but fuck that, those games are stupid.)

I say "usually" because my birthday coincidentally falling on the same day as Selection Sunday is, at least this year, a sad reminder of how lost and empty I am in my life right now.  I wish I could use the day, and sports in general, as an escape from my harsh reality, but seeing My Fucking Father be disappointed that I spent four hours at the local coffeeshop distracts me from that.  (Oh, forgetting the iPhone at home while I was out didn't help; he called me at least twice this afternoon.)  And I reminded myself that in less than half a day I'll be, gulp, 37.  I lied awake thinking that a couple hours ago.  And when I worked out this evening I punched "36" into the bike, and realized that will be the last time I can ever do that with any truth.

So what should be a doubly joyous occasion is one that reminds me of my mortality.  Well, fuck.  Anyway, with four final championship games to go, and only one team bubble that might need to win it all Sunday afternoon or else be left out of the tournament entirely, here is the aggregate decision on the final baker's dozen teams that will and will not get the final at-large bids.  These are listed in descending order of probability of getting in, according to the fine person behind The Bracket Matrix:

The Last Four Byes (aka What Should Be The Last Four In If The NCAA Wouldn't Be So Fucking Greedy And Contracted The Field Back Down To A Harmonious 64 Teams Like They Should):

• Temple
• Oklahoma
• Villanova
• Cal

The Last Five In (aka The Last Four Charity Cases Who Have To Pay For The NCAA's Largess By Playing The Play-In Games):

• St. Mary's
• Boise St.
• Middle Tennessee St.
• La Salle
• Ole Miss (the reason why this list is five teams long; The Bracket Matrix has the Rebels in as Team 68, but they're in the SEC Championship Game, and if they win, not only are they in but they are exempt from playing the "Opening Round" game because they won the conference auto-bid)

Last Four Out (Erroneously Called The "First Four Out" -- I Mean, Wouldn't 0-28 Grambling Be One Of The "First Four Out?"  They Should Be The "First One Out," You Know?  I See This Phrase "First Four Out" Everywhere And It's Pissing Me Off Because It's Not Grammatically Correct):

• Tennessee
• Kentucky
• Southern Miss
• Virginia