NFL Anti-Picks, Divisional

Record, Wild Card: 1-4
Overall Record: 46-65-1
Total Outlay, Wild Card: $500.00
Total Winnings, Wild Card: $190.90
Loss, Wild Card: $309.10
Overall Loss: $1,392.85

Um, this is embarrassing.  Betting on the National Football League is probably a fool's errand even before I starting making an ass out of myself, but I have been on a shameful losing streak this year.

A weekend where three of the four road teams won (and the fourth, Kansas City, should have won before a ridonkulous comeback from Andrew Luck and The Bastard Baltimore Colts) was not a good time to predict that two home teams, Philadelphia and Green Bay, would win.  And as it happens they both lost at the gun.  How did a dome team, New Orleans, win in cold Philly?  Maybe Chip Kelly's vaunted offense is not so special if you make sure you clamp down on LeSean McCoy.  And as for the Packers, well, that was just a good game between two defenses that aren't world-beaters, and San Francisco had the last laugh.

What really hurt me were the small lines.  Both NFC Wild Card games were 2 1/2 points, so I was playing with small margins of error.  Now, I thought that the Eagles and the Packers were going to overcome those numbers, but by the time those close games were nearing their ends, it looked like I was screwed.  In fact, I thought that when Phil Dawson kicked that tie-breaking, game-winning field goal at Lambeau Field it pushed the total Over and I had lost that as well.  But the O/U was actually 46, not 41.  So I got one win.

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I don't know how to bet.  These games are tough to analyze, and my record as of late isn't helping things.

Let me begin by saying what I won't bet on.  The line of Seattle -8 is intriguing, and this would be another case of a dome team going on the road against the elements.  Plus, those elements are going to be harsh: Rainy with lots of win, aka not passing weather.  That should be a huge demerit against New Orleans ... but I thought they would have trouble in similar conditions against Philadelphia, and they won.  Meanwhile, the total has been hammered down from 48.5 to 44.5.  If both teams' passing games are shut down due to the weather, and if New Orleans can slow down the tempo of play (I think they'll have to if they want to win), I can see this game going Under.  But those four shaven points loom large for me.  I think the total score of this game will be close, too close for me to bet on.

Meanwhile, San Francisco is actually favored at Carolina, +1.  I like the adage of the home dog, but the 49ers are the hottest team in of the eight remaining in the playoffs.  Also, the Panthers under Head Coach Ron Rivera have been very poor Against The Spread coming off bye weeks.  But, I think Cam Newton and the Panthers are somewhat underrated.  To the point where I'll bet on them?  No, but I'm not going to bet on San Fran, either.  That +1 line will burn me, especially considering how it burned me last week.

Have no feel for the totals for the two NFC Divisional games, but seeing that I'm now down by $1,300+, I need to make a stand.  So here goes:

1) New England -7 (The Colts' comeback against Kansas City last week did show two things: Andrew Luck put his team in this position by throwing three interceptions, and great teams would not allow those Chiefs to run up the score so easily and quickly against them.  The New England Patriots are that team.  Now, are they world-beaters?  No.  This team is particularly vulnerable, moreso on the road than at home, but vulnerable.  The defense in particular can yield a ton of points.  But Bill Belichick will be able to engineer some plan to confuse Luck, and if Andy Reid can do that in the first half, the Pats can frustrate Luck for two halves.  The weather won't be great in Foxborough; although it won't be as windy and rainy as it will be for the game in Seattle, there will be some of each.  But New England at home is a lot sturdier, particularly for Tom Brady and the passing game.  They'll score, and enough, I hope, to cover the touchdown line.  By the way, my wager isn't a reflection of how confident I am about it, but my need to cover my debt) $200

2) San Diego +9 (My thinking, and given my track record, it's flawed: The way in which the four teams last weekend won shows how good they will be going forward.  San Francisco won by three, New Orleans by two, and Indianapolis by one, which means that they'll lose against "better" competition.  Meanwhile, the San Diego Chargers clamped down on the host Cincinnati Bengals and throttled the AFC North champs in Cincy 27-10.  That should mean that they'll give the top seed in the American Football Conference, the Denver Broncos, a good game.  Now, is that true?  I don't know.  Peyton Manning knows how to adjust after they were upset at home against the Chargers in the regular season.  And I still don't know how the Chargers are even in the playoffs.  But the NFL is screwy, so San Diego outright winning this game shouldn't be a complete shock.  Saying that, I'll take the fat number and the points) $200

3) Because I'm in debt, parlay those two bets above, for $100.

Good luck!
A