Record, Divisional: 3-0
Overall Record: 49-65-1
Total Outlay, Divisional: $500.00
Total Winnings, Divisional: $1,128.10
Gain, Divisional: $628.10
Overall Loss: $764.75
Well, I have a long way to go, but a 3-0 week with some huge bets have taken off a huge hunk off my debt. Felt good that Indianapolis' escape against Kansas City meant they would be no match for New England. Also, I took a chance that San Diego dominating at Cincinnati meant they would stand a chance against Denver. About that -- the Broncos seemed to have kept the Chargers offense at bay, but while they were able to score touchdowns here and there, that was by far from the Peyton Manning air show all of us are used to. And, not to toot my own horn, that kind of good but not great offensive explosion was what I was counting on when I bet San Diego to cover. Parlaying the two had to be done because I was so far in the hole, but I am so glad I'm able to win $264.46 from that.
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Nevertheless I only erased 45.1% of my debt -- a large portion, to be sure, but hey, I wish I could eliminate it with one fell swoop. I only have two more Sundays to get to the good side, so I will once again have to bet big.
The question is, should I bet so much that I reach positive territory if all of my bets come through, or should I hedge against them in case I get one or more of them wrong?
Well, let me eliminate the kinds of bets I won't make. First up is the American Football Conference Championship, New England at Denver. I can totally believe that this matchup will once again come down to Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning, in which case both defenses will be at the mercy of the opposing Quarterback. Also, I've checked the weather in Denver. There is a westerly wind at 8 m.p.h. expected to last throughout the game, but it'll be sunny with temperatures falling through the fifties. In other words, good passing weather.
However, I think a lot of bettors are thinking that way. Also, both teams' last games speak to me. If the Patriots kicked ass and the Broncos struggled, what do you think will happen? I think that the total of 57 might not be reachable if New England is able to pound the ball on the ground, eating up clock and pinning Manning on the sidelines. That's very possible given that the Broncos defense isn't exactly a world-beater.
Meanwhile, I've also checked the weather in Seattle, the site of tonight's National Football Conference Championship between San Francisco and the Seahawks: Light wind, low 40's, clouds. If you believe that cloud cover hems down the noise coming from the CenturyLink crowd, that might induce the 49ers into committing false start after false start, thereby stymieing their chances to pull off the upset on the road. Then again, that could just be all bullshit. (Feel bad that I forgot all the science I was taught.) This should be one hell of a game, and a very close one, too. But would you take either side when the line is 3 1/2? I wouldn't.
So what does that leave us?
1) New England +5 (The Patriots could very well pull off the upset here. The Broncos have not looked all that sharp on either side of the ball for the past several games. I appreciate a number I think is fat; it gives the team and me a lot of leeway in getting to that line. What I outlined above is what I think will happen) $300
2) Seattle-San Francisco Over 40 (Yes, both teams have excellent defenses. But I'm not going to shortchange either offense, which will be able to enjoy a day with no gusts or precipitation. I'm certain both teams can score two touchdowns. I'm almost absolutely sure that one of these two teams can score a third, which means the total comes to 35. After that, given that some drives will stall, what are the chances that both teams can cobble together two field goals, or at least another touchdown? I'm not as confident that this game will hit the Over as much as I believe New England will cover. But hey, I like my logic here, plus I'm still way down in the hole bankroll-wise) $200
3) Parlay the two, for $150.
Good luck!
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