Record, Week 17: 2-5
Overall Record: 45-61-1
Total Outlay, Week 17: $650.00
Total Winnings, Week 17: $477.25
Loss, Week 17: $172.75
Overall Loss: $1,083.75
Well, with me being in such a hole, I have to take a lot more risks. Good thing I still have games up to and including the Super Bowl to make up this debt. (And hey, even if I finish in the red, it's all fake, so who cares?) I laid most of my eggs in two winner-takes-all games that, at least to me, were reasonable bets: Chicago and Dallas to not only cover, but win, at home. People were fading them because they've underachieved all season, but I thought that they both were facing teams with flaws (Green Bay and Philadelphia, respectively), and with the home-field advantage behind them, I thought they would eke out wins. Because I felt good about them winning Straight-Up, I laid some Moneyline cash on them, and parlayed them both SU as well as Against The Spread.
Sadly, both the Bears and Cowboys lived up (or rather down) to their reputations this year. Dallas, for the third year in a row, had a chance to win the NFC East in the last game of the NFL's regular season and lost. Chicago, who underwent a personality change this year when Marc Trestman replaced Lovie Smith as Head Coach, were very good on offense but, like they have all year, blew one final assignment on defense. Both teams could have won late but instead choked away their opportunities.
At least Dallas was able to cover its +7. The Bears losing by more than three hurts a lot. So even though I made some money on the 'Boys, as well as betting the Under on the Steelers' win over the Browns (and to think that Pittsburgh almost got into the playoffs ... three games had to break their way, two of them did, and that third, the Chargers' result against Kansas City, should have gone their way if the referees remembered a new illegal formation rule on Ryan Succop's missed field goal), gave me a payback on winnings for the week that was a hell of a lot larger than I thought. Still, I was under for the week, and now I really am back to my nadir, more than a grand in the shitter.
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But this is the week where everything comes back around, right? RIGHT?!
1) Philadelphia -2 1/2 (Am I wrong in thinking this could be the surest matchup of Wild Card weekend? Remember that this is a classic case of a dome team playing outside on the road in the playoffs. They never win. And it's not as if New Orleans is a world-beater this year. One other thing to reflect upon: The Saints defense is predicated on generating turnovers, and Quarterback Nick Foles has thrown only two interceptions since being installed as the starter this year. There's always a chance that a playoff team plays uncharacteristically -- that's how teams in the playoffs lose -- but I don't see how the Eagles at home could play so awful that dome team will come in and win, especially with game time temperature in the twenties. Triple Best Bet this) $150
2) Green Bay +2 1/2 (OK, we can debate the merits of a division champion hosting a team with a better record. I don't mind it, and I don't think guaranteeing the division winner just a playoff spot is good enough; if you're going to award them merely that, you might as well eliminate divisions and go purely by record. But any change is futile for this matchup. And especially with Aaron Rodgers proving me wrong in playing well enough to beat Chicago on the road in a very important game, I see this game resembling Seattle beating New Orleans, or Denver beating Pittsburgh: They have worse records, and they may be worse on paper, but they'll win at home. There are too many advantages for San Francisco on the road, and although I think they have the longest active winning streak in the league, I am not convinced they are consistently winning the one-on-one battles that led to their slow start at the beginning of the year. Best Bet this ...) $100
3) Green Bay M/L +120 (... then bet them Straight-Up) $50
4) San Francisco-Green Bay Under 46 (One more reason why I don't think the 49ers are going to win: It is very possible that this will become The Coldest NFL Game Ever Played. There is a vicious cold snap that is supposed to begin Sunday and last through Tuesday. On Sunday, early forecasts have a game time temp of -5 to -10 with a feel factor approaching -30. I think the recorded temperature of the Ice Bowl, lost by Dallas over these Packers in Green Bay, was -13. As I heard Christopher "Mad Dog" Russo on his show Friday afternoon, it is insane, even borderline immoral, to have fans watch a game in such cold temperatures. And even though I am a huge advocate of this season's Super Bowl to be played out in the elements at the Meadowlands, they cannot conduct this game in an environment this cold. It is too damn dangerous. [Russo also speculated that the NFL and the networks knew about the forecast in both Green Bay and Philadelphia a week in advance. He says that if the two games' timeslots were switched, both would be played in much safer conditions, and certainly the game in Green Bay would not be played in temperatures so cold. If that is true, and I'm not saying that it is, the NFL has made a grave mistake.] I think San Francisco suffers more than Green Bay in such adverse weather, but I don't think any player on the field Sunday afternoon is going to like playing. That means that scoring will be at a premium. Do you think you would have the energy to run, hit and score when your body is telling you you won't survive unless you get to a heater? Best Bet this) $100
5) I have just convinced myself that the Under bet should be part of my parlay. Rope in 1) with 5), for $100.
Good luck!
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