College Basketball Anti-Picks, Final

Record, Round 6: 1-0
Total Outlay, Round 6: $50.00
Total Winnings, Round 6: $95.45
Gain: $45.45

Final Record: 28-32
Final Gain: $114.88

Scott Van Pelt has a segment called "Bad Beats," recalling the games of that day that reversed fortunes of gamblers in an instant.  This title game was one of those bad beats.  Usually, I would be the one getting screwed.  So thank Buddha that this was not one of those times.

My bet was for the Over of 149.5, and for the longest time it wasn't looking like it was going to even get close to that total.  All I could do was enjoy what was a good back-and-forth game from a joint close the mall closest to me.  Both Villanova and North Carolina got on their runs, but the other team was able to get back into it ... until the Wildcats made their run close to the end of the game.  Hey, my bracket was way beyond busted well before Monday (like it always is), but I thought that the Tar Heels were going to win because they had too much frontcourt depth.  All the assumptions I had going into this game turned out not be true.  The Wildcats, who were known more for their outside shooting, outscored Carolina in the paint.  Conversely, the Tar Heels, better known for bullying themselves on the down low, hit more three-pointers than 'Nova.

And it was that outside shooting that got themselves back into it late.  And then came an end-of-game we haven't seen in college basketball title game history in a long, long time.  First, UNC's Marcus Paige double-pumped on a three-pointer which had no form in his extension or follow-through and yet, somehow, the damn thing went in:



To top it off, Villanova's Ryan Arcidiacono ran it past the timeline and then underhanded the ball to teammate Kris Jenkins, the teammate who gave it to him in the inbounds pass.  All the Tar Heels defenders were falling back to defend a drive to the hoop, so the trailing Jenkins was totally free to hoist up a three a couple feet behind the line and ...



This is the first buzzer-beating shot in championship game history since N.C. St. beat Houston in 1983, causing Wolfpack Head Coach Jim Valvano to scurry around the court trying to find a friendly soul to hug. In fact, I don't remember the last buzzer-beating shot in an NCAA men's tournament game.

That was a hell of a moment, and so I was glad I decided to swallow my pride and head out to the bar to watch the game instead of protesting the fact that this is the first-ever men's tournament title game to shown exclusively on elitist cable and instead listen to it on the radio.  (A lot of people, however, seemed to have stuck to their guns; the game received its lowest ratings in seven years.)  But for my Anti-Picks, Paige's three-pointer was much more important than Jenkins's.

Check out the scores.  Paige threw up the ball with Villanova leading 74-71.  That's 145 points, short of the 149.5 Over/Under.  When he jacked that up everybody had to be thinkin', "No way that goes in," right?  And basketball fans know that when a shot like that goes up and it's a miss, the rebound usually is hauled in by the defensive team.  In this case it would be the Wildcats, and so North Carolina, trying desperately to get the ball back again, would follow the Villanova player with the basketball in order to stop the clock.

Do you see where I'm going with this?  Even if the Villanova player makes both free throws, that points the score at 76-71 'Cats, which brings the total to 147, 2 1/2 points below the O/U.  With little time left to inbound the ball on the backcourt, you can imagine the Heels throwing up a prayer that would miss.  Villanova grabs the loose ball, and it's possible the horn sounds and the game is over at that point, with the final score of 76-71.  There are many scenarios in which both teams would not score enough points to reach the Over.

Which makes it even more improbable the scenario where we did reach the Over.  When Paige sank his Hail Mary, he tied up the game at 74 -- 148 points total, just 1 1/2 points under the O/U.  That meant that any desperation three-pointer that goes in would push the total over 149.5.  And if Arcidiacono or some other Wildcat player did drive the basket and make the hoop, that's still two points, which results in 150 points total, and that is still Over the O/U.  And if Villanova doesn't make a game-winning shot, we go to Overtime, where there has to be more scoring through five minutes and so the total could push way over the Over.

Do you see how important Paige's three-point make is?  Miss it and it's likely, even probable, that the game doesn't reach 149.5.  But with that successful swish he made it inevitable that the total points scored in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship Game would get above 149.5.  In other words, once Paige sank that shot, I was golden.

Yeah, so it was only $50.  Had to guard myself against losing so much money I would finish the 2016 Big Dance owing money.  But I don't.  I won money ... and a little more with nailing the Over.  So I finish this tourney below .500 in games picked correctly but with $114.88 in hypothetical cash in my pocket.  Not a bad day's work.

See you next year!