I have never had as much trouble analyzing a Super Bowl as I am with SBLI. Both teams are so good. Moreover, as good as both defenses have been, especially lately, both offenses have been better, maybe unprecedentedly excellent.
My breakdown, and the point where I get stuck, is in the trenches, particularly both offensive lines. They have been so good that I can't figure out how either defense is going to stop both teams from scoring. I just don't. So if neither D can stop either O, what is there to break down?
Let me also say this: As much as I can see both offenses play up to their proficient potentials tomorrow, I can also foresee, if one facet of one's offense does not work as well as it needs to, either because the opposing defense manages to defend against that facet well or if there's an injury to a key player, I can see this Super Bowl turning into a rout. I can see both offenses working like machines. I will almost guarantee that one offense will work like a machine. And if that happens, one offense will continue to churn while the weakness in the other offense will increasingly hamper that O's system. That means that one offense will score and the other won't. Hence -- rout. It feels as though both organizations embrace advanced analytics, and both offenses are the end results of their commitment to future stats. So efficiency should be seen as a given, and that if one offense doesn't do its job, that team will fall quickly behind, never able to recover during the game. Does that make sense?
Because of my inveighing over the offensive lines, I am having a hard time tossing off number of yards and other specific happenings I think will come from certain players. I can only say for certain that both offenses will rack up yards and points, and both defenses will suck. Hard to give you numbers when you're stuck on that.
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I wrote the above yesterday. It's Sunday noontime, and I still am stuck at that. So I will bloviate on about one facet that will affect Super Bowl LI and one surrounding it.
The facet affecting SBLI are the refs. Big variables such as turnovers and injuries are impossible to forecast (although I hear Falcons Center Alex Mack will be playing with a bad fibula -- how big of a problem is this going to be??), and you have to include the officiating crew. In case you don't know, some of the best in each of the seven positions get the honor of calling the Super Bowl. It does not go by crew. So even though it seems disjointed (and I kind of think it is), Super Bowls won't be called by people who have worked with each other over the course of a season. It may or may not matter.
What does matter more, of course, is how tightly or loosely a crew (or a judge) calls a game. In particular, ESPN's Kevin Seifert focuses on the Side, Back and Field Judges that will be in Houston tonight and has found that they have called much fewer pass interference calls against the average. Seifert thus believes that both defensive secondaries will be allowed a lot more leeway to grasp and hold, and that may favor the Patriots, who have been known to play tightly and is thought to need to do that in order to prevent the big plays that have powered the Falcons through the postseason.
The facet surrounding Super Bowl LI is a fascinating one. Have you noticed how politicized the outcome of this game has become? With Trump being installed president, everything in our lives is being seen through that prism. I don't mind it. But I'm surprised at how many non-sports fans are turning this into a battle between good and evil. Which it is.
People have noted that New England Owner Robert Kraft, Head Coach Bill Belichick, and Quarterback Tom Brady have supported Trump, or at least have dropped signs that they support him. I'm not completely buying that Belichick and Brady do. Those signs might be just them doing what Kraft wants them to do, and I am certain Kraft is a Trump fan.
However, maybe due to facts on their own or by comparison in relief, that has made Atlanta the "Democratic" team. I have no idea if Falcons Owner Arthur Blank is a Democrat. Him being the CEO of Home Depot, and thus a rich man, makes me think he's definitely not. But I read this story in the New York Times where the construction of Mercedes-Benz Stadium, replacing the (still usable, I think) Georgia Dome next door is part of a major redevelopment project for the impoverished neighborhoods just to the west of it. It has a lot of critics. But I am willing to not cast this as White Savior Philanthropy and think this is a genuine effort by a man who cares about the area he is working in. Besides, I don't see Kraft doing this.
Combine that with all the pro-Trump stuff New England is doing and you can see where people's political allies would say they want to win tonight. Bill Maher, no way a fan of sports, wants the Falcons to win. On Saturday Night Live last night, Michael Che said that he's rooting for Atlanta because he wants to "watch the blackest city in America beat the most racist city I've ever been to." You know what? He's not wrong.
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And yet ... and yet ... when I inject my personal feelings, I am still torn. I respect what New England is doing. But I ain't no Republican. Plus, dynasties are bad -- in football and in anything else. And yet I don't want to root for Atlanta because of ... well, this.
So, who to choose, and what to bet if I were in Vegas? Knowing that a big play such as a PI call, a turnover or an injury will have an outsized effect on this game and can potentially derail one team's success, and that I can't predict that at all, I will predict the following things:
1) Both lines will be so good that there won't be a sack in this game.
2) Both Tom Brady and Matt Ryan will throw for at least 300 yards.
3) For the first time in Super Bowl history, the game will go to Overtime.
4) The Patriots will win the coin toss, and Brady will march the Pats down the field to the promised land to win the game.
Prediction: In Overtime, Patriots 48, Falcons 42. I'm not certain of the score. But I feel very sure about the prodigious scoring. So, for my Anti-Pick:
1) Patriots-Falcons Over 58 (There's always a chance that this game can turn into a slog. But I have to think that the high-flying scoring we've seen throughout this postseason will carry over to SBLI. I would be shocked if Brady and Ryan consistently are off on their passes, or if they can't make at least half of their third-down conversions) Uh, your life savings
Good luck!
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