Finally got around to reviewing my NFL regular-season win totals predictions. I used this new fancy-schmancy metric called DVOA -- forgot what it stands for, and I really don't give a shit, because it fucked me over.
They categorize the success or failure of a team's plays over the course of several seasons (encompassing, I assume, all the current players on the team) by down, distance, formation, possibly opposing defense (whether or not they're blitzing), score I think, etc. The results from that analysis is used to predict a team's fortunes for the next season. Specifically, they predict how many wins a team will get and whether they will win the Super Bowl. Did they predict the Saints to reach the Super Bowl? I believe the guys who created this DVOA thought the Chargers were going to go all the way, and, well, look how that turned out.
Anyway, I kept track of their predicted records. Also, according to this site called Vegas Watch, which uses mathematics applied to games and teams to find and exploit inefficiencies and inaccuracies in betting lines, pointed out the five teams with the biggest discrepancies between the projected DVOA win total and Vegas' win over/under, in no particular order: San Diego, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Seattle (who were predicted to have more wins than Vegas thought), and Arizona (which was thought to win less).
Well, thank fuckin' God I didn't get to Vegas to put my money where my mouth was, because only San Diego (DVOA thought they were win more than the 9 1/2 games the lines were given it) was right. The others were wrong, dead wrong.
Also, in ESPN The Magazine these "believers" gave the predicted record for all 32 teams. From that I kept track of who these guys thought would win the eight NFL divisions. The result: 3-5, including all four divisions of the NFC. By contrast, the "chalk" teams, the ones Vegas gave the best odds to win each division (at least according to the betting sheet I have in front of me) went 6-2. The Giants and Pittsburgh were the only favorites that did not win its division -- and by the way, DVOA thought they were going to win, too.
My fucking God, it creeps me out what would've happened if I actually laid money based on advice from these liars. Like the new-school measurements PECOTA and CHONE for last baseball season, trusting supposedly air-tight applied math to win games doesn't just lead you astray, it leads you to financial ruin. These guys were so wrong that I'm starting to think that these metrics ain't nothing but bullshit, a pile of numerical hocus-pocus that is acted upon because the guys who created it are, or at least bill themselves as, guys who know what they're doing. This is the same way got into the housing crisis.
It's insane. I hate this teabagger movement, where it seems as if they believe the dumber you are the fitter you are to be president. But if so-called knowledge leads to conclusions like these, and if you feel as if you were intentionally screwed over by people who trick you with their cunning, I can understand how you can believe that ignorance is bliss.
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