Record, Conference: 0-1-1
Overall Record: 49-66-2
Total Outlay, Conference: $650.00
Total Winnings, Conference: $200.00
Gain, Conference: $450.00
Overall Loss: $1,214.75
Yes, this should be considered a setback. I did not see New England getting completely dominated by Denver. Possibly a high-scoring game, but somewhere close, and not the pick-apart torture through the air nor the pounded-into-the-dirt running "defense" they showed. Meanwhile, I have the feeling that the sportsbooks in Las Vegas had the Over/Under total set below 40, which is the number I got through Covers. If so, I would have won. At any rate, despite watching one hell of a game, I either managed or stumbled into a tie. Guess that's better than losing, but it's much worse than winning some money. Which means I have one game left to climb out of a hole of more than twelve hundred dollars.
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What will happen in Super Bowl XLVIII? This is what will happen in Super Bowl XLVIII:
1) The Seattle Seahawks will adopt the main philosophy the New Orleans Saints did when they beat Peyton Manning (then of The Bastard Baltimore Colts) in the SB a few years ago: The best way to defeat him is to make sure he stays on the sidelines. So, I am predicting that Seattle wins the coin toss, elects to defer to the second half, and on the opening kickoff, try an onside kick. However, Denver will be cognizant of that, recover the ball and enjoy fantastic field position to start the Super Bowl.
2) However, the Broncos will fail to take full advantage of the surprise move and their fortuitous field position. Why? This is an excellent defense. Also note that this offense hasn't truly gone gangbusters; that eruption against New England two weeks ago really is an aberration. The Broncos have stopped themselves, settling for field goals on drives that should be touchdowns. Add a physical defense like Seattle's, and Manning will have to grind this out in order to win this game. For this drive, at least, it'll bog down and end on a Matt Prater field goal.
3) Vince Verhei of ESPN Insider is my main source for my breakdown. He is a big reason why my paid subscription is worth it. He has compiled and broken down the numbers, and he noticed something that might have gone under your noses: Seattle's offensive line has failed to protect Quarter Russell Wilson from sacks against base defenses. While everyone is drooling over the potential matchup between Peyton Manning and statistically the greatest defenses in recent years, this subplot when Seattle has the ball is worth watching as well. Shaun Phillips, Malik Jackson and Robert Ayers will need to put pressure on a fully healthy yet porous O-Line, otherwise Denver's defense might be in for a long day. Verdict: I don't think the Broncos will overwhelm Seattle defensively, but the three players I mentioned above will get two sacks between them (Wilson will be sacked three times during the game total, and on a very interesting statistic you may not know, Wilson has been sacked at least thrice the past five games). And after the game there will be some talk that Wilson, for all of his ability to slide and evade danger, is nothing more than a "game manager."
3) Percy Harvin will not be a factor, although he's been out half the season, seemingly so he can be utilized here in the Super Bowl. They will try to use him in some bubble screens and read-options (something they haven't used a lot lately), but I say he'll come up lame early in the game, either on offense or on a return, and he'll be unavailable the rest of the game. Serves him right; disrespectful chump shouldn't talk if he can't play.
4) If Denver's front four are unable to get to Wilson, or if Wilson is able to scramble and extend plays, or if the Broncos decide they need to blitz, Wilson, at least according to Verhei, has one big fat target in the field to hit: The deep middle. The Broncos' pass coverage has not been great, or even very good. That's why Denver's defensive line has to disrupt Wilson's timing. However, what also has happened lately is Wilson's plateauing, even regressing play. While I don't think Denver's D will dominate, Wilson won't have a great game: One big bomb that will flip the field, another explosive play of about 25 yards, but under 40% pass completion, about 150 yards, and two interceptions.
5) What about the running game? If Seattle uses advanced stats (and they are one of the most innovative organizations in the National Football League), they'll know that Marshawn "Beast Mode" Lynch usually gets most of his yards running on first down and running around the right side of the offensive line. Seattle will run early, and rely on the running game, but I doubt they will have much success -- until late. I don't think Seattle's offensive line will have a great night, and that will include trying to open holes for Lynch, which will largely impede his game. Lynch will pound and pound until he breaks one open late in the game, for 40 yards and a touchdown, but he will be held to around 80 yards on 25-30 rushes.
6) By the way, the weather in the Meadowlands probably will be a non-factor: Highs will drop from the low 40s to the mid-30s, winds will top out at 10 m.p.h., chance of precipitation low (and if there is any will come in the form of rain). Therefore, when the game kicks off, this Super Bowl will not be the coldest in history. There was one in Tulane Stadium in New Orleans during the game's first ten years that will remain the game's most frigid.
When the NFL announced that SB XLVIII will be held in an outdoor stadium and a cold-weather city for the first time ever, I inivted the elements in. You don't think of pro football without the wind and the snow and seeing the breath coming out of the players' mouths and the steam coming off the players' heads. After seeing pristine, almost antiseptic conditions for the league's showpiece game, I wanted a compromised situation. I wanted to see guys falling on their ass because their cleats catch nothing but the top dermis of ice. But it looks like we're not going to get that. And now that I've built that wintry image up in my head, I'm kind of disappointed. I feel, at least at this moment, that an outdoor, cold-weather Super Bowl has to have inclement weather, otherwise why hold it outdoors in the northern United States at all?
I was kind of banking on bad weather to justify my bet, which will come at the end. However, even the best conditions one can get in outside New Jersey won't change my mind, mostly because I'm kind of stuck with my bet.
7) OK, irresistible force against unmovable object. If the Broncos were smart -- and I assume so because they made the Super Bowl -- they will rely on their passing game. Not to say that Knowshon Moreno (and to think that a guy who's so maligned, at least in fantasy football circles, may be an important cog in a Super Bowl). In fact, Seattle's defense has given up short passes often. You know that Manning will go under center, look at the look Seattle gives him, does his improv thing, senses which of the defenders is the Mike, and gets his line to pick up that blitzer just enough for him to uncork a, say, five-yard pass play. A few times it might be swings or checkdowns to Moreno, who will be needed more as a passing option. So don't sleep on him: He'll get about 50 yards running but also get about 50 yards passing, and he'll be needed to convert a couple third downs.
8) Manning and the Broncos offense will (or at least should) come out in a bevy of three- and four-receiver sets. Their secondary is excellent, but so is Manning, and the Broncos receivers are physical and tall enough to at least make that aspect of the Super Bowl a draw. Demariyus Thomas is the big story: He probably will draw Richard Sherman, and all I know about that matchup is that I want to see it. But watch out for Andre Caldwell. In those three- and four-receiver sets, the reserve Caldwell will draw a safety, a nickelback or a dimeback (think Jeremy Lane or even Chris Maragos). Manning, assuming that he won't be sacked all day, will be able to progress through his reads and find Caldwell beating his man down the field. No touchdowns for Caldwell, but he'll be the leading receiver, for both teams. In fact, I think he'll be the only skill player (besides the Quarerbacks) who reaches 100 yards.
9) So how will Peyton Manning do? You know, I have not heard a whole lot of the battle between Denver's offensive and Seattle's defensive lines. Is there a reason behind that? There's always a possibility that something unexpected and, for example, Manning gets sacked a dozen times. I don't think that will happen. Nor, however, will Manning have a field day. Breaking news: This is an excellent defense he will face.
Now, I'm not saying that Manning will have yet another failure on the big stage. I actually say what I say as a compliment: Any lesser Quarterback would probably throw half a dozen INTs and complete only ten passes. Manning will get sacked once, complete about 45% of his passes, get picked twice (both on sensational plays by the Seahawks D, and what the hell, I'll give those interceptions to Sherman and Earl Thomas), and throw no touchdowns and for only ... I'll pick a specific number ... 212 yards. Expect a lot of punts, on both ends, and also expect a lot of short passes. But Manning must be able to move the ball, even if the dividends are paltry.
10) Let me throw this wild prediction out there. So Sherman is the guy the casual football fan knows all about after that meltdown post-game interview after he made that fantastically smart play to seal the victory over San Francisco. Wes Welker is the man who may have committed a cheap shot on the Patriots' Aqib Talib, which effectively shut down the New England D. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick even called it out as a "dirty play," effectively burning any bridge Welker could have walked on back to New England.
So I will predict this: On a pick play about ten yards over the middle, some time early in the second quarter, Welker will deliver yet another questionable hit on Sherman -- a hit so bad that Sherman will have to leave the game for good.
Terry McAulay, the referee for Super Bowl XLVIII, had crews that called the fourth-most pass interference penalties on the year, according to Kevin Seifert of ESPN NFL Nation. Remember that he won't be using his crew; the officials are an "All-Star" team of those that had the best years. Also remember that what is done is done; I think he will call an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on Welker. Will that chill both defenses into sticking so close to their guys for fear they will draw flags? I don't know.
As Welker walks back to his sideline, he'll put up his hands and put his thumbs and index fingers out in an "L" position. That's the "guns up" sign that Texas Tech fans show. Welker is a Texas Tech alum. Do you know who else is a Texas Tech alum? Michael Crabtree, the San Francisco 49ers wide receiver who was supposed to be on the receiving end of that Sherman deflection in the NFC Championship Game ... and the "sorry receiver" Sherman was referring to in that post-game interview.
Red Raider covering for a fellow Red Raider? I have no idea if Welker and Crabtree are friends. Again, I'm just throwing that out there.
11) I need to wind up these predictions. ... OK, so there's going to be an early field goal by Denver. The score will be 3-0 Broncos at halftime. Manning will string together a bunch of passes together long enough for another Prater FG early in the fourth quarter to make it 6-0. However, that Lynch rumble for a touchdown will happen with about 2 1/2, 3 minutes left in the game to give the Seahawks a 7-6 lead.
Crunch time for Manning ... and he will succeed, somewhat. He will convert three third downs, one of them a surprise run by Moreno that nets 15 yards. Seattle will force a 45-yard field goal try which Prater will miss ... but the Seahawks will be called for encroachment. (This despite McAulay heading crews that called the fewest defensive pre-snap penalties, also according to Seifert.) With about half a minute left to go, Prater makes the most of his reprieve and kick the go-ahead field goal. Seattle ends the game doing that stupid, futile play where Wilson makes a pass and the receivers try to lateral the ball when they actually go backwards. Denver 9, Seattle 7, and Prater becomes the first kicker ever to be named Super Bowl Most Valuable Player.
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So, what is my pick?
1) Seattle-Denver Under 48 (Yes, the clear weather makes it a good bet that touchdowns are going to be plenty. But Seattle's defense is great, Denver's offense isn't as great as it's been made out to be, and Russell Wilson still isn't playing well. I am surprised that every score I've seen has at least one team reaching 20 points. I could totally see, say, a 17-16 result. Nevertheless, I think this will be a defensive slugfest) $1,350
Good luck, and have fun watching the game!
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