Sunday, November 15, 2020

Overthinking It In Fantasy Football

Should update everyone on how my fantasy football teams are doing.

Both of them, in the one in the league where I am Commissioner and in the one in the league where I am not, I am below .500.  And yet I am optimistic because my teams are playing better, and winning, lately after starting off very roughly.

I think, historically, that I have also been below .500.  And yet there was one time, not too long ago, when I won the whole thing.  And the main takeaway I got from winning that league's title (I think it was the one in which I'm Commish) is all the transactions I made.  I looked back at the roster of my winning team and I realized that I had very, very few players that I drafted when the season began.  I concluded that to win it all, I needed to win each week.  And that meant I couldn't be too beholden to the players I got at the beginning of the year.  If there is a player I should pick up because he has a favorable matchup, I should pick him up and be willing to drop someone I drafted because he is not pulling his weight.  That would make fantasy football look more like Daily Fantasy Sports, but if that strategy leads you to a title, I don't think I should care.

So I'm listening to Fantasy Football Weekly on The Fan while at work yesterday/Saturday.  First time hearing it this year.  I listened to it when I had a Tuesday-Saturday schedule, but since I have Saturdays off now, I didn't have occasion to listen to it.  Anyway, I think the three guys on the podcast/radio show are experts, and I think their advice is really good.  Yesterday (although I think they record their episodes on Fridays), they were extremely high on Rams Wide Receiver Josh Reynolds.  He I think is the slot guy, and he and the Rams faced the Seattle Seahawks, whose Defense is on the verge of allowing the most Yards (passing and total; don't know about rushing) in the history of the NFL.

I won both of my games last week, and both by the slimmest of margins.  I won one by more than two points, and I won the other by, get this, .12 points.  I have to believe I have never won by a smaller margin.  I'll take both victories, but if I were really good, I'd blow out my opponents instead.  Beyond that, I felt as though other things in my life right now (the pandemic being foremost among them) distracted me from tending to my fantasy teams.

So, once I got home, I thought long and hard about picking up Josh Reynolds.  I then looked at both of my leagues.  He was free in both, but who on my squads would I drop in order to pick him up and enjoy the bounty of a surprisingly productive game?  So I went to bed deciding I wouldn't.

And then I went to work, where on Sundays I had no one I was working with and therefore I could go check my fantasy teams without worrying about being ratted on by my co-workers or any bosses.  I revisited Reynolds and my team.  And I decided, about 15 or even ten minutes before the noon kickoffs, that I was going to be bold.  So I not only picked up Reynolds for both of my teams and, since I saw a huge reward looming, I started him on both.  And so I made the tough calls on who to drop and who to bench.

I have Josh Jacobs on both of my teams.  Has been a good #1/bellcow Running Back for my teams.  But he was facing a Denver Broncos team that, while overall not having a good season, has a good run defense.  Meanwhile, in the league where I am not Commish, I had Nick Chubb coming back from injury and J. D. McKissic, who, like Reynolds, is unheralded but had a very juicy matchup (he and Washington was facing Detroit).  So I did it.  I started Chubb and McKissic, slid Reynolds into one of my flex positions, and benched Jacobs.  (But I started Jacobs in the other.  My other RBs are James Robinson and Zach Moss, and Jacobs is a better play than Moss, even with the matchup.)

Oh, and who did I drop?  Fantasy Football Weekly said that D. J. Moore of Carolina is rapidly falling out of favor with Carolina.  On my Commish league, I have him and Robbie Anderson, who I believe are the starting Wide Receivers for the Panthers.  And frankly, they have felt interchangeable.  I usually start both, but I have started Moore once while benching Anderson and vice versa another week.  That recommendation, even though it's not quite backed up cleanly with the stats for both Carolina WRs, convinced me that there was a difference between Anderson and Moore, so I dropped Moore in order to get Reynolds.  In my non-Commish league, I decided I could part with Jamal Williams, since Aaron Jones is back to being the bellcow for Green Bay.

So, what happened in the NFL Sunday?  Well ...

  • Moore out-yarded Anderson, 96-21.  And Moore scored a Touchdown; Anderson didn't.
  • Williams took a backseat to Jones, but he was still used; he racked up 55 yards total.
  • McKissick had 49 total yards from scrimmage.  But hey, at least he ran for a TD!
  • Moss?  Only 21 yards.  Chubb?  Hit paydirt once, 126 yards on the ground!
  • And Reynolds?  He did gain 94 yards through the air.  That led all Rams and it's a season high for him.  But I wish he had scored.  I also wish Reynolds got to 100; in both of my leagues (as well as most fantasy leagues) I would have received a bonus if he reached triple figures receiving.
Not to jinx anything, but I think I'm going to win both games this week going away.  But to be honest, it won't be because I decided to get and start Reynolds.  It'll be because guys like Chubb and Kyler Murray (and, in the league where I started him, Jacobs) had monster games.  It'll be because Cole Beasley is the one who overachieved in that wild Cardinals-Bills matchup.  It'll be because both of my Kickers (Rodrigo Blankenship and Ryan Succop) came through with big Kicker games.  (Oh, and in the league where I'm Commish, it'll be because my opponent underachieved.)  So the huge changes I made, and all the angst I invested?  It didn't matter, and maybe it wasn't worth it.  And maybe, if someone picks up what I dropped and get Moore and Williams off the waiver wire, and they roar back to life, it'll cost me.

It is in times like this where I should like fantasy football.  But I am mentally exhausted.

No comments:

Post a Comment