But, for example: I had The Bastard Cleveland-With-A-20-Year-Bit-In-St. Louis Rams as my Super Bowl-winning team when the season started because the only apparent missing piece was Quarterback and they cleared out their First Round Draft pick inventory to bring in Matthew Stafford, a guy many know to be someone who's really good despite being stuck on a shitty team. And then Owner Stan Kroenke, overcompensating to make sure his steal-back from St. Louis was worth it, turned into the football version of the Showtime Lakers and allowed trades for Von Miller and Odell Beckham, Jr. mid-season. They should be marauding through the season and playoffs. And yet they needed a miraculous pass from Stafford to Cooper Kupp to survive Tampa Bay (and end Tom Brady's career), then survive a slog before Jimmy Garoppolo proved his detractors right late in the Fourth Quarter of the NFC Championship Game. I don't care what Football Outsiders says, including the Defense; the Rams are underachieving.
The Cincinnati Bengals, on the other hand, can be described as overachieving -- can. I am incredibly impressed by Joe Burrow (whose nickname from now on should be Joe Cool) and Ja'Marr Chase, and I am confident that they'll be a connection that NFL fans will love for the next five Years at least. However, they have had as much good luck handed to them as any team I've seen in any postseason. They had to make a stand to fend off The Bastard Oakland-By-Way-Of-Los Angeles Raiders and then had the gift of not one but two QBs (Ryan Tannehill and then, inexplicably, Patrick Mahomes) suffering brainfarts late in their Games to win. Yes, I am cherry-picking when I go to the same stats I ignore about the Rams when I use them to show how fortunate the Bengals are to have reached The Big Game.
So with all my expectations undermined, I don't know what the hell is going on. Father has called me a couple times the past Week if I have any bets he could make for me. I think he just wants to make a bet for himself and wants me to tell him who to bet on. I can't do that for this Super Bowl. If you put a gun to my head, I can choose something -- and have, which I reveal down below (this is a lame tease).
Nevertheless, many fans predict a score anyway. I will tell you my score prediction right now. Despite what Football Outsiders says in its SB preview (and I always look at their piece before the Super Bowl because they are excellent at it), I am going to say Cincinnati beats the Rams tonight, 18-17. Do I base this on logic? Hell no. I am basing this prediction on superstition, namely three things. One is at least tangentially germane to the Game itself; I reveal that below as well, but if you're a Vikings fan, I just gave you a huge hint.
Also remember that the Chinese/Lunar New Year happened on the 1st, and this Year is the Year Of The ... Tiger. Finally, I really believe that, even though this is being played in the Rams' stadium (they technically are the road team), I believe what happened in the NFC Championship Game, where San Francisco 49ers fans showed up enough to make the crowd 50/50, if not slightly tilted in the Niners' favor, will happen again, and possibly moreso.
Los Angeles is not a sports town. It just isn't. And the league's worst fears about losing L. A. as a passionate football town I think is coming true. It was passionate back in 1998 when the Rams and Raiders left the city. League officials wondered if they were going to lose them as football cities. They have. There was a lot of pain from L. A. football fans once both teams were taken from them, but over the course of 20 Years, they've learned to live without football. Despite getting one and then two teams (poor Chargers) back into the city, and despite Kroenke trying to buy a winner, I don't think there is a Rams fanbase, just Rams fans. So I think there are a lot of casual Rams season-ticket holders who have tickets to the Super Bowl and have sold them to a Cincinnati Bengals fanbase that has been similarly demoralized, but are more passionate about a team that was last here in 1988 and hadn't won a postseason Game since 1991. Who Dey Nation will have shelled out four, possibly even five figures to watch the Super Bowl in person in Los Angeles. They'll be out in force at SoFi Stadium tonight, and they will make the Rams not feel at home in their home for a second consecutive Game. So don't discount the home-field disadvantage.
As for my other super-specific predictions, well, they're below. I would advise you not to make any prop bets based on these:
- I think I heard that the last seven teams to win the coin toss have gone on to lose the Super Bowl. I say that is broken tonight. So, in other words, Cincinnati wins the coin toss an goes on to win SBLVI.
- The big matchup within the Game is the Rams' Defensive Line against the below average Bengals' Offensive Line, which allowed Burrow to be sacked nine times when they beat The Bastard Houston Oilers. I think Burrow will scramble more (duh), and they'll use a lot of jet sweeps to take the heat off of Aaron Donald & Co., but Burrow will still be sacked at least five times, and Donald gets to him at least once.
- The running Game will be close to non-existent, for both teams. Neither club relies on it, and they haven't for most of their postseason Games. The Rams total will rush for about 50 Yards. The Bengals the same, although Joe Mixon might pick up a Touchdown and the Bengals will pick up key First Downs on the ground on at least three Third Downs.
- Seeing as how I don't think there will be a lot of scoring, both Punters will be busy. I predict at least four Punts for both teams.
- What I think will happen is that both squads' star Wide Receivers will have big performances even with everyone knowing how good they are. Chase likely will draw Rams star Cornerback Jalen Ramsey for most of the night, and this will be an excellent individual matchup to watch. However, I think the Bengals' offensive game plan will be able to jar Chase loose from Ramsey from time to time, and that will allow him to feast (especially over the middle). I expect Chase to rack up at least 125 Yards receiving, and I expect him to house it once.
- On the other side, Cooper Kupp (who legitimately should have been named Most Valuable Player when he probably was only an afterthought for the race) is, like, 170 Yards away from the record of most Yards by a receiver in a single postseason. Mike Hilton will draw the primary assignment against him, but Bill Barnwell of ESPN has a great breakdown of how Kupp has had a breakthrough, and possibly a one-of-a-kind, season (if you still have time to read it before the SB, you should; Barnwell breaks down everything, and he makes fantastic points even though he thinks the Rams will win this one comfortably). All eyes will be on him and he still will shine. He'll get between 150-200 Yards receiving, and he'll score a Touchdown.
- It's possible Burrow's been lucky this Year. And who knows, after this Year he could turn into just a good Game manager. But as of right now, he's on another planet, and what he's shown to me makes me think he's got what it takes. Now, I can't see him reaching 300 Yards passing because he will often be flat on his ass. But like he has these playoffs, he will be able to erupt and pick apart this supposedly vaunted Rams Defense. Pencil him in for one or two TDs, and he will be able to get Cincy above .500 when it comes to Third Down Efficiency.
- Now I reveal my third superstition. You may have heard that after The Big Game, the Minnesota Vikings will announce Rams Offensive Coordinator Kevin O'Connell as their new Head Coach. (It can't be official because he's still coaching a team that's playing; doing so will raise questions about tampering. He can still back out as it were, but come Monday, he's the next HC.) It would be so Vikings if the guy they hire based off of his supposed superiority comes through instead with a putrid performance with his unit that makes Vikings fans wonder why in the hell O'Connell was picked. Sure, O'Connell isn't the Rams' primary play-caller. That's Rams Head Coach Sean McVay; O'Connell apparently helps with the weeklong planning and stuff. Still, The Vikings Curse lives. The Rams generate less than 300 Yards of total offense, Matthew Stafford will get sacked three times, and they will have at least three Three-And-Outs in the Game.
- And Stafford will become a liability. I thought that getting out from the oppressive situation in Detroit will finally unlock his potential. But it seems as though, sadly, that while you can take the Quarterback off of the Lions, you can't take the Lions off of the Quarterback. His underwhelming play, mostly notably due to his lack of arm strength, has lowered the ceiling on what this Offense can do. I have been told never to waver from your original pick. But Stafford is one of many individuals with the Rams who aren't playing as well as they're supposed to, and it's going to cost the team dearly in the form of two Interceptions, one late in the Fourth Quarter.
- Finally, Bengals Kicker Evan McPherson, who has been clutch for Cincinnati all postseason, will make all his Field Goals in Super Bowl LVI, all of which will be from 40 Yards or longer, the last of which will give the Bengals the lead and eventual victory in the last Minute of regulation. Rams Kicker Matt Guy, on the other hand, will miss a FG in the First Half.
- One post-Super Bowl prediction: Cincinnati Bengals Owner Mike Brown, in the immediate afterglow of lifting The Lombardi Trophy, will, in the next Week, leak plans to ask the city, Hamilton County, and the state of Ohio for more money to improve and repair Paul Brown Stadium. The citizens of the city and county already are paying debt service to the stadium, and Mike Brown, miser that he is, will take this Super Bowl Win as an opportunity to piss off the fanbase even more.
Happy Super Bowl!
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