My Super Bowl L Prediction

First of all, I don't understand why the NFL decided to break away from using Roman numerals for this, the all-important half-century edition of the Super Bowl.  The league admitted that when conjuring up the logo for today's game, they went through 73 designs with "Super Bowl L," but they all sucked.  They concluded that it was the "L"'s fault, that that letter just looks ugly, so they went to the Arabic "50" for their branding instead, just for this year.

Three things about this.  First of all, the NFL says that they will revert back to Roman numerals next year and Super Bowl LI.  You mean to tell me that you can't use Romans for the 50th Super Bowl because it looks ugly, but the "L" and the "I" for the 51st looks just fine?  You mean to tell me that that one vertical line makes that much of a difference?  I don't believe it.  Second of all, if you don't want to use "Super Bowl L," how about -- brace yourself -- "Super BowL?"  You see that?  You capitalize the "l" in "Bowl" to both spell "Bowl" and let people know that this is the 50th edition?  You always to make double meanings when you create logos, and I just did one right there!  Finally, although the league says using Arabic numerals is just for this year, I think they opened Pandora's Box.  Don't know if this makes any sense, but I get the sense that people just ... take to the name of "Super Bowl 50" much more readily than they would "Super Bowl L."  People know that "L" stands for 50, but only the NFL uses Roman numerals.  Everything else in the world, even in countries that don't use the Latin alphabet, knows what "50" means.  So it is so much easier, now that the league essentially gave its "consent," that next year people will write next year's title game as "Super Bowl 51."  I predict that will happen, and then what will the NFL do?

I am predicting other things now, too.  This is an offshoot of the Anti-Picks that I used to do.  But with the world basically shutting down 5:30 this evening, I have to do a blog post about Super BowL.  So not only will I give out what I think the score will be, but I will also break down what I think will happen and even stick my neck out by giving out specific statistics and occurrences.

I will admit to this: My heart wants Denver to win so Peyton Manning can ride off into the sunset a champion (although the news that he bought the services of goons to rattle the informant who tipped off Al Jazeera about HGH shipments to his house disappoints me).  I think Carolina will win, but there are a lot of positives for Denver, so I think the Panthers will win less than I hope the Broncos win.  Does that make any sense?
OK, my mini-predictions.  Let's do this:

1. I think the biggest matchup is Carolina Quarterback Cam Newton against Denver's edge rushers, Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware.  This is a formidable Offensive Line the Panthers have, and the interior three are just about impenetrable, but I think the OL can be had at the Tackles.  Specifically, Right Tackle Mike Remmers is bad in pass blocking.  Assuming Miller or Ware can get around Remmers and/or any Running Back the Panthers bring in to chip-block (and if they can't, you can forget any chance Denver has to win), that means Cam Newton is on the run.  And I think that will be the story.  If he can run for First Downs or manufacture long, street ball-type bombs while scrambling, you can forget any chance Denver has to win.  However, I am banking (or praying) that Newton, for all his improvement to where he became this year's Most Valuable Player, will get overwhelmed by the moment.  I'll post his negatives when I talk about the Denver D, but for the positive, Newton will run for about 40 yards and he might get a few First Downs, and I think he'll get two Touchdowns, one of them to Tight End Greg Olson.
2. By the way, Carolina will get nothing from their running game.  Not that they would want to.  They didn't rely on it in the NFC Championship Game.  In fact, I don't think any of the teams that went deep into the playoffs relied on their running game.  Newton will be the Panthers' leading rusher; Jonathan Stewart, Mike Tolbert & Co. combined will rush for 35 yards.
3. Denver will get three sacks on Newton.  Maybe even more vital, I think Denver will draw three holding penalties on the Carolina offense as Remmers and possibly Left Tackle Michael Oher grab Miller and Ware to prevent them from chasing down Newton once he leaves the pocket.  (By the way, while I think Miller will be the most important player for Denver, the most important person for the Broncos may be Defensive Coordinator Wade Phillips.)
4. People continue to sleep on the Broncos Defense.  Its back eight (they play a base 3-4) has been a virtual wall, and that is what Newton will have to face.  I'm telling you, he might be holding onto the ball more than he should if he doesn't face pressure, and if he does face pressure, he might get into some mistakes.  For the Broncos to win, the defense has to induce some Turnovers ... and I think Denver will make Newton throw two crucial Interceptions.
5. I am frightened at how little pop Manning has in his arm, although I hope that two weeks of rest will have strengthened it.  I am also very scared that his Offensive Line, which has been at best mediocre this year, will get plowed regularly by a ferocious Carolina Defensive Line which, however, has only one real monster, Kawann Short, when it comes to the pass rush.  While Manning will throw for 250 yards and a Touchdown to TE Owen Daniels (all of them on screens and, at his farthest, intermediate passes that won't go for longer than 20 yards), he'll be sacked four times.
6. Maybe the second-most important aspect to the game, after Newton vs. the Denver pass rush, is making sure that Carolina doesn't jump out to a big lead.  The Panthers have been able to race out to big leads in both of their playoff games.  Also, harken back to the last time Manning and the Broncos reached the Super Bowl: They gave up a Safety on their second offensive play and they were blown out.  Since Manning no longer has a cannon for an arm, they won't be able to come roaring back with a huge second half like his little brother Eli did with the New York Giants.  If the Panthers score 21, 28 points before Halftime, forget it.  So the beginning of the game will be extremely important for Super Bowl L.  Denver has to control the pace of the game, by both stopping Newton and the Carolina offense and by Manning correctly using the run and the pass to keep the chains moving for a long drive in the First Quarter.  I think both will happen.  It's important to remember that although his body may be weak, no one will out-prepare Manning.  He'll know what to do; it's just a matter of being able to do it.
7. Denver's running game will be important -- and I think it'll produce.  Pro Football Focus says that Carolina actually is very average when it comes to stopping the run.  The combo of C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman will thus combine for 125 yards and one score.
8. "Riverboat" Ron Rivera will go for it on 4th-and ... oh, intermediate distance in the Third Quarter.  And they will fail to convert.
9. OK.  Fourth Quarter.  Denver leads 21-20 and gets the ball back after the Broncos stop the Panthers O around midfield.  Manning uses the run game and screen passes to engineer an 8 1/2-minute drive that forces Carolina to use all their Time Outs.  Carolina prevents Denver from reaching the End Zone, but they kick yet another Field Goal.  That forces Newton to go all the way with about, oh, 90 second left in the game.  A desperation Fourth Down pass is incomplete, and Peyton gets his storybook ending (assuming he's smart enough to leave the game after tonight).

Super Bowl L Prediction: Denver 24, Carolina 20.  Just checked the lines; it looks like Carolina is a 5-point favorite, so if you're following me, you take the Broncos.  Of course, I'm not in Vegas, so I can't bet.  And with all the instances I've said that the Broncos need this and this and this to happen or else forget it, maybe not having the ability to bet any money is a good thing.

Enjoy the game!