Buck Conventional Wisdom. Fuck Conventional Wisdom

I play ESPN Streak frequently, even though I'm not good enough to win anything.  Man, why do I do it?

Anyway, I noticed something in the five things I picked yesterday.  I went 3-2.  Wins: Florida St. would beat North Carolina (this is men's college basketball); Josh Allen would not pass for more Touchdowns in the First Half of the Buffalo Bills-Baltimore Ravens Divisional Playoff Game than Lamar Jackson (and they tied -- neither scored a passing TD); and the two teams would combine to score two or fewer TDs in the Second Half of that Game (the total was two, both by Buffalo).  Losses: I thought Red Bull Leipzig would beat Wolfsburg (this is the Bundesliga, and the teams drew at two) and Aaron Rodgers would throw for less than 150 Yards in the First Half of the Green Bay Packers-Los Angeles Rams Divisional Playoff.

These choices come with percentages of how many people playing pick which side.  Take a look at how many people choose the side I choose (and I list these five choices in chronological order):

• RB Leipzig winning: 72.0% -- and this was a loss;
• Florida St. winning: 34.0% -- and this was a win;
• Rodgers throws for 149 Yards or less in the First Half: 64.9% -- and this was a loss;
• Jackson throws for as many or more TDs in the First Half than Allen: 13.5% -- and this was a win;
• Buffalo and Baltimore combine to score two or fewer TDs in the Second Half: 22.2% -- and this was a win;

You see that the two times I went along with the majority I lost, but the three times I went against the grain I won?  Yes, yesterday/Saturday appeared to be a day where minority opinions were the way to go.  But this shows that sometimes, you should ignore the wisdom of the crowd.

Well, until you shouldn't.