If he was right about this, what to make of his current prediction -- that Super Bowl LV will be considered one of the all-time best Games ever? I shouldn't bet against him now. But while I'm not saying that this Game will be a blowout (I don't think it will be), all-time classics usually have a lot of offense, and I keep thinking there will be less scoring than most people think considering the main storyline of this Super Bowl is the GOAT, Tom Brady, going up against The Best Quarterback Right Now, Patrick Mahomes.
I will say that right now, I am way more intrigued when Brady has the ball. He has seen it all, and his instincts remain sharp. But advanced statistics have shown that he is very, very susceptible against blitzes. Also note that the Kansas City Chiefs' Defensive Coordinator is Steve Spagnuolo. He was the DC for the New York Giants when they beat Brady and the New England Patriots -- and ruined their perfect season -- in SB XLII. Saying that, the big factor in the upset was the Giants being able to generate pressure with just four Defensive Linemen. It looks as though Spagnuolo is going to bring the house in order to force Brady into mistakes. Will that scenario play out?
But it's not as if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to let Mahomes walk all over them -- at least I don't think so. The Chiefs are far from the high-flying Offense of last Year. Moreover, their Offensive Line is a hurting unit. In particular, both Chiefs Tackles are replacements. One wrinkle in all of this is that Mahomes has been spectacular throwing against blitzes. But, if the Bucs can generate pressure with just four guys, that will force Mahomes into improvising against blanket coverage. Will that scenario play out?
I am as unsure about this Game as I have been about any since I started blogging. Because of that, I don't think I'll get into too many super-specific predictions. (Not that they ever came true anyway.) But I have an image about how I think Super Bowl LV is going to go.
1) The Buccaneers have not utilized much of their running game, but sabermetrics say that they have a lot of success using it, especially in short-yardage situations. Since the best way to defend a star Quarterback is to keep him on the sideline, Tampa Bay is going to play the possession game, using Leonard Fournette mostly to pound the ball on the ground. Fournette will finish with 75 Yards rushing.
2) On the flip side, The Bucs' Defense will succeed in blowing up the K. C. Offensive Line, flustering Mahomes and (somewhat) stymying the Chiefs attack. T. B. will finish with more Sacks than the Chiefs -- I will say, oh, three.
3) To counteract the Buccaneers' success in infiltrating their backfield, Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid will shift to using a lot of jet sweeps to take the heat off and to force Buccaneer linemen to back off. Tyreek Hill will finish with more Yards rushing than receiving, and Mecole Hardman is going to break off one run of at least 30 Yards.
4) Analytics also state that Tampa Bay, for all their opportunism in defending and in hawking the ball, oftentimes leaves the middle of the field open, and allows Tight Ends to run wild. Travis Kelce may be needed to chip onrushing linemen, but he will get his targets, and I think he'll make the most of them. Kelce will finish with at least 100 Yards and one Touchdown.
5) The Bucs are also vulnerable against two-TE sets. I can see either back up K. C. TE, Nick Keizer or Ricky Seals-Jones, catching a short-yardage ball in the End Zone for a Touchdown.
6) Still, both Defenses are going to dictate much of the play through the first three Quarters of this Super Bowl. And while Mahomes will finish with around 300 Yards passing, some time between the First and the Third Quarter he will throw an Interception.
7) However, Mahomes will pass for more Yards than Brady once this Game is over. While the running game and Brady's timely throws will help in matriculating the ball, he will wind up passing for around 225 Yards and will conspicuously have a hard time completing a pass that goes for 20 Yards. And in a repeat of how the tide turned in the Fourth Quarter of last Year's Super Bowl, Brady will throw a pick in the Fourth that will be seen as a momentum-shifter.
8) A lot is being made about the diverging philosophies of both Head Coaches in the area of Fourth Downs. Reid frequently goes for it; Buccaneers Head Coach Bruce Arians has largely either punted or gone for the Field Goal. Reid, comfortable in his element, will go for it on Fourth three times and succeed all three times. Arians, getting caught up in the Big Game while also subconsciously attempting to beat back his cowardly conservative reputation, will also go for it on more than one occasion on Fourth Down -- and, in the Fourth Quarter, the Bucs' Offense will be stopped on a critical Fourth-and-short.
9) After K. C. marches down the field for a go-ahead score with five Minutes to go, Brady will get yet another chance to lead his team on a Game-winning drive, this time in an attempt to win his seventh Super Bowl ring. But after converting one Fourth Down and reaching midfield, Spagnuolo finally just brings the fuzz. The second of two K. C. Sacks comes on this drive, putting Tampa Bay into an early long-Yard situation. The Chiefs will continue to blitz ... and Super Bowl LV will for all intents and purposes end with a turnover on downs after Brady throws to the flat short.
10) Quarterbacks usually are named Most Valuable Player, so I'll say it's probably going to go to Mahomes. But Kelce should not be a bad alternate candidate.
So, my Super Bowl LV Prediction: Kansas City 29, Tampa Bay 25. That would mean the Chiefs cover; the line has been them giving three or 3 1/2 Points. I'm not confident about the margin of victory, and I'm really not confident about who is winning the Game. But if I am picking anything to bet on, I will wager ...
1) Kansas City - Tampa Bay Under 56 (I think bettors are dazzled by the QB matchup while not realizing both Defenses are very good and have played very well in the playoffs. You can't keep two bleeping good Quarterbacks down all Game, but football fans who love defense should love SBLV) $?
Now let's have a good Super Bowl!
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