Total Outlay: $1,400.00
Total Winnings: $1,452.10
Total Gain: $52.10
I had Purdue as my Final Four team out of the South, and once they got upset by North Texas (goddammit, why couldn't you hit your Free Throws?!), I metaphorically trashed my bedroom.
But I'm better now. As of the end of Round 1, my bracket is, surprisingly, clean ... well, not the South, obviously, but the other three Regions are not filled with red slashes. I still have my other seven of my Elite Eight, and I only lost one other Sweet Sixteen pick, Cal-Santa Barbara (aw, shit, Sow, why couldn't you make that lay-in, man?). I'm probably done as far as the megapool is concerned, and I now have no margin for error in my friend's smaller pool of picking just the Final Four. But I have to be honest: I think I am doing as well as I have ever done through the Round of 64 in any tournament.
By the way, I apologize for not putting a dollar amount on my St. Bonaventure bet. Please believe me when I say that I would have laid down $100.
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Now comes Round 2, and as upset-y as Round 1 already is (one #2, one #3 and two #4's have already been eliminated), usually the upsets come in this Round. I have looked at the Slingshot/Bracket Busters model on The Athletic, and even though it only has the percentages for Sunday's Round 2 matchups, it has got me thinking that I could be laying down a lot of fake bucks on the underdogs. Plus, I have come to the conclusion that you can get a better read on even-Round Games that are played two days after teams play. I think that odd-Round Games are a good indicator of where that team is at, and the lack of preparation for the next opponent means that a team's game plan will largely remain the same, and so how well (or not well) they play will largely remain the same as well.
(Aside: Normally, I don't see odds for the back half of Round 2 Games until the morning before. That would crimp my style this Year because I have to work in the morning. But it appears as though Covers.com has odds on the teams that won last/Saturday night save for Gonzaga-Oklahoma. I think demand from gamblers has compelled sportsbooks to throw up opening lines sooner than they used to, and that's good for me blogging about March Madness.)
So here goes -- and I expect to eke out a good record and make even more money:
1) Loyola-Chicago +7 1/2 (Slingshot/Bracket Busters, written by former analytics writer for ESPN The Magazine Peter Keating, really likes David's chances of beating this Goliath. The Ramblers were horrifically underseeded and currently sport the most efficient defense in top-flight men's college basketball. And there's one other, uh, omen: Illinois was unheralded at the beginning of the season, and teams that make a long run in The Big Dance are known commodities ranked highly at the beginning of the Year. No one who has looked at the Fighting Illini thinks they're susceptible to a slip. Could this be the close call many teams have to sweat through on their way to a championship -- or worse?) $100
2) Wisconsin +6 1/2 (A similar situation to the above for the Badgers going up against Baylor -- with the caveat that I think Baylor is overrated and they won't reach the Final Four. So I will Best Bet this ...) $200
3) Wisconsin M/L +235 (... and say that the Badgers win outright.) $100
4) Syracuse +4 (Similar to the above two. I have the Orange reaching the Sweet Sixteen. But as much as Jim Boehiem's 2-3 Zone paralyzes foes who realize they're playing the 'Cuse on two days' notice, West Virginia appears to have the capability of neutralizing it, at least according to Keating. I wish I could bet in alignment with my bracket, but I'll take the pussy way out) $50
5) North Texas +5 1/2 (I had neither the Mean Green nor Villanova winning. So I'll fade Goliath without his Point Guard again. By the way, the line has been pushing North Texas' way since it opened at +7) $100
6) Oregon +4 (Well, well, well ... we come to an unprecedented question that had once only been a thought exercise: How do you fair as a team who had a walkover because the team you were supposed to play couldn't? That's what the Ducks were gifted once VCU came down with an outbreak of COVID-19. So even though they prepared for a Game that didn't happen, they have essentially two days of rest to face an Iowa opponent that has probably Player Of The Year Luka Garza and some three-Point shooting but a somewhat porous Defense. That seems incredibly unfair to the Hawkeyes. Also, I'm making this pick based on a reporter in the Eugene area who tweeted that Oregon is going to scare the shit out of a Second Round team. Might as well Best Bet this ...) $200
7) Oregon M/L +157 (... and say they'll upset Iowa Straight-Up) $100
8) UCLA-Abilene Christian Under 133 (I have the Bruins in the Sweet Sixteen. But both they and ACU like to slow down the tempo. I think I'll take a flyer) $100
9) Ohio +5 1/2 (Did not pick either the Bobcats nor Creighton to advance to this Round. But this is a Heat Check pick; although Ohio sputtered down the stretch before surviving Virginia, the Bluejays only won because that due for UCSB missed that bunny) $50
10) LSU +5 (This might be the Round in which Michigan misses its starting PG) $100
11) Colorado +1 (I have the Buffaloes reaching the Sweet Sixteen. [I initially picked Florida St., but decided to switch after I wrote down the Seminoles in my bracket. I rarely do that.] I think a hot-shooting team from deep will beat a lengthy, physical club that nonetheless has trouble getting Rebounds. Best Betting this ...) $200
12) Colorado M/L +66 (... then saying they'll win SU) $100
13) USC -1 1/2 (Believe it or not, the sixth-seeded Trojans are favored over third-seeded Kansas. It's a tight line, but I'll throw in some more money) $200
14) I'd be nothing if I didn't parlay my Best Bets -- 2), 6) and 11), for $200.
15) Parlay 3), 7) and 12), for $100.
16) Three-legged parlay: 1) with 10) with 13), for $100.
Good luck!
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