Overall Record: 18-24
Total Outlay, Round 3: $800.00
Total Winnings, Round 3: $477.27
Total Loss, Round 3: $322.73
Up-To-Date Loss: $772.72
Oh my God, I am so fucking bad at betting. Well, in real life I would be so reliant on parlays, even if I'm woefully behind. But whether I'm leaning on favorites or underdogs, I just lost. And what really killed me are betting on both Arkansas -11 1/2 and Syracuse +6 1/2, then using both on three parlays. If just one wager failed I would have sunk all the parlays, but both wagers failed, so I really fucked myself. And now I am down, uh, a lot.
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Nut-cutting time. If I am ever going to climb out of this (fake) hole, I will really need to crank up my bets. And since this is an even Round, there is less turnaround time -- for teams to adjust to new opponents, and for me to not get all the information that will get out before the first Elite Eight matchup tips off early this/Monday evening. With not all precincts reporting, I'll bet on the following:
1) Houston-Oregon St. Under 129 (The Slingshot Model [authored by The Athletic's Peter Keating] gives the Beavers a 29% chance of upsetting the Cougars. Houston is favored by 7 1/2 Points. I also have the Cougars winning this Game [and the next one, FYI], and since the gods don't want me to have nice things, I really should be fading the Cougs. But I can't. Instead, I will play the Over/Under. Along with one other reason, which I explain below, this Game has two teams that love to plod, zone and confuse. This makes for an environment where the first to 60 wins. I just hope it's Houston) $200
2) Baylor-Arkansas Under 148. (From this point on, all Games will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium, the football stadium for The Bastard Baltimore Colts. There is slight, faint patterns that teams are underscoring because of the ... uh, cavernous perspective shooters see when the background of the building they're playing in is a lot farther away than they're used to playing in a basketball arena. I also see the Bears, who have been dominating so far this Big Dance, being able to slow down Arkansas, and for the Razorbacks to have trouble making their Free Throws. Not completely confident, but hey, I need to toss some darts at this point) $200
3) Gonzaga -9 (Appreciate how USC is dominating its opponents up to this point ... almost as much as the Zags have. Just looked at Slingshot; Keating give the Trojans a 24% chance of pulling off the upset. Keating's only big contrast: Turnovers -- specifically, the Bulldogs don't give up any, but they generate a lot. Guard play has been the bugaboo for SC's losses this Year, and it appears as though this will be the way Gonzaga wins -- and covers the spread) $150
4) UCLA +7 1/2 (OK, I am convinced that Mick Cronin can pull off one more upset and take down Michigan. Even though Slingshot models these two as having a similar style, which means that the favorite can usually kill the underdog, I am thinking that the Bruins' embrace of the Three-Pointer in their upset of Alabama [boo!!!] will be the thing they use to at least keep this Game close. Besides, I want the Wolverines to go down in an outlandish effort to shame the NCAA to eliminate the Play-In Games, and having yet another random at-large use the "First Four" as a ... well, slingshot to get a leg up on the competition would be one, uh, far-fetched way to bolster my case. By the way, Keating gives UCLA the best chance at an upset, pegging them at 31%) $100
5) I have little confidence in any of the above wagers, so I'll make only one two-legged parlay: 1) and 2), for $100.
6) And hell, all four, for $50.
Good luck!
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