Super Bowl XLIX Prediction: Seattle 42, New England 22

I will bring back, if not resurrect, a feature of my Anti-Picks and really, really break down the Big Game between the Seahawks and the Patriots, going so far as to predict specific statistics and plays:

• I have learned that, generally, the team who is favored wins.  That is helped, in part, by the fact that there are two weeks of preparation for the Super Bowl, which I think could be shortened to a week.  That being said, there has been a lot of late money pushing some lines from New England -1 to a Pick 'Em.  (I think the opening lines after both conference championship games had Seattle -1).  Last year's Super Bowl spread wasn't that much bigger: the consensus is 2 1/2 points, I think.  But it was also Denver whom they favored, and you remember how well that went.  Bottom line: Seattle will dominate like they did last year.
• Initially I was persuaded by a fact I heard on The Fan last week: The Patriot defense has seen the read option only three snaps.  There is something to be said about that side's preparation, and I think Bill Belichick has hammered home the importance of lane discipline and sure tackling.  But I keep harkening back to last year's AFC Championship Game, when Denver was able to establish the run in order to set up the pass.  I have just looked at last year's game and the running totals are a lot less rosy than I thought they were, plus I am trying hard not to be swayed by the breakdown by MMQB's Greg A. Bedard that the Pats will keep the Seahawks' run game in check.  So, against all present evidence, I will say that Seattle will have a big day on the ground.  Marshawn Lynch will have at least 150 yards rushing.  (Also, I think he'll have a late touchdown in garbage time where he'll grab his crotch, drawing an unsportsmanlike conduct flag.)  And even though he won't eclipse 200 yards passing, Russell Wilson will get close to 100 yards rushing as well.
• Bedard doesn't single out much praise for the New England offensive line, so I'll alter my initial projection to reflect a greater consensus that the Patriots' O-line may be the weak spot in Super Bowl XLIX.  Pro Football Outsiders says that line is weaker than it was last year.  In particular, Guards Dan Connolly and Ryan Wendell can be bumrushed against.  So that makes Seattle Defensive Lineman Michael Bennett the guy who could cause the most havoc in this game.  If he can beat either Connolly or Wendell, if Seattle's vaunted secondary continues to win the one-on-one matchups against the Patriot Wide Receivers, and if Head Coach Pete Carroll and Defensive Coordinator (and soon-to-be Atlanta Head Coach) Dan Quinn can find a way to neutralize Rob Gronkowski (and they will -- I predict no more than 50 yards and no Touchdowns), Bennett will get a lot of chances to get to Tom Brady, who still is not a mobile quarterback.  Brady gets sacked at least four times, and Bennett gets two of them.
• Brady will eventually have to go pass-happy once the second half begins and the game gets out of hand, and he'll get to 300 yards and throw, oh, at least one TD.  But he'll also throw one interception.  And New England will lose the ground game; LeGarrette Blount, whom I suspected engineered his way out of Pittsburgh so he could latch back onto New England, a team many people thought would have a better chance of reaching The Big Game, will be exposed as the charlatan as he is and held to 50 yards.
• Three other things about Sunday's event, thought not the game: The best commercial of the Super Bowl will once again not be funny but serious and/or moving; that commercial will not have an animal in it (even though the most popular commercial of SB XLIX will probably have one cute animal if not several -- that's not a prediction I'm making, it's damn near a fact); and confirming a couple suspicions I've heard, Katy Perry will insult Taylor Swift at some point in her halftime show.

And if I have to make an Anti-Pick, I'd bet it all on the Seahawks, which, according to the consensus on Covers at least, still has them a one-point underdog.  Go Seattle +1.  But above all, let's have a good and close game!