I will tell you right now that I think that my super-specific predictions, and my final score, will be wrong. Well, they've been wrong every year since I started predicting, but I have even less confidence in what I will be predicting this year than previous ones. It's that close, and that should portend an even, tight Super Bowl ... but I'm not predicting it'll wind up like that. I'll tell you my score, and why, at the end. Trust me, you're going to hate it.
I am affected by recent news, especially when it comes to injuries. And so I am shook (when it comes to predicting the SB, I'm not a huge Chiefs fan) to hear that Kansas City Left Guart Joe Thuney is out for the Game because of a torn pec. That isn't good, and that comes from word two Weeks ago after the AFC Championship Game that rushing Defensive End Charles Omenihu blew out his ACL in that Game and he won't play today/Sunday. Frequently, the healthier team wins this Game, and it looks San Francisco is healthier by far.
And yet ... goddammit, I see these holes with the Chiefs and I am still picking them. Two over-arching reasons. One, they have the better Quarterback. Patrick Mahomes hadn't played on the road in the postseason until this Year, and he's played good-to-great in winning at Buffalo and Baltimore. While I don't want to damn Brock Purdy by saying he's a game manager, the 49ers have gotten to this point because of the skill players on the squad, and not just Purdy.
Secondly, I think the Chiefs have the better Head Coach. Andy Reid has been here before, and he has skillfully navigated this team this season as it morphed from one led by its Offense to one led by its Defense. Meanwhile, Kyle Shanahan has to shed reputation as a choker when it counts. He was the Offensive Coordinator of The Atlanta Falcons blew that 28-3 lead to The New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI, and he was Head Coach of the Niners when he blew a 20-10 Fourth-Quarter lead to Mahomes and the Chiefs in SB LIV four Years ago. I think it's apparent, given the noted strengths and weaknesses of both teams, what both clubs should do in order to win. I'm largely shaping my prediction on what I guess you could call "best practices." I just don't know if Shanahan will do that or go rogue and give the Super Bowl away again.
Might as well start with my Super-Specific predictions:
1) Both teams excel in running. And in a case where strength meets weakness hand-in-glove, both teams are poor in stopping the run. So, if both teams are smart, this Super Bowl will largely be a ground affair. And that means that 49ers Running Back Christian McCaffrey should have a productive Game (and if the 49ers win and win in the way they should, McCaffrey should be the runaway winner of Most Valuable Player). At any rate, he should rack up around 125 all-purpose Yards, split between running and receiving (he will be utilized a lot coming out of the backfield) and will score one Touchdown.
2) Meanwhile, the Running Back room for Kansas City should generate 100 Yards rushing, split between Isiah Pacheco, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Jerick McKinnon. (By the way, it's still up in the air whether McKinnon plays. For KC to win, he needs to play, at least to pass block Nick Bosa, et al.)
3) I'm going back and forth as to the number of Sacks will happen in this SB. Both QBs are very good at eluding pressure, and if they pass it'll be very close to the Line of Scrimmage, so those Passes will come out quick. However, Thuney injured means that a Niners interior Defensive Lineman, either Arik Armstead or Javon Hargrave, should be able to make stops in the backfield. Moreover, while he's not hurt, San Francisco Right Tackle Colton McKivitz has allowed more Sacks than you want from an Offensive Tackle. That should give opportunities to edge rusher Chris Jones to rush the QB, and maybe George Karlaftis, too. (And this is where losing Omenihu hurts Kansas City.) All told, I think Mahomes and Purdy get sacked a little more than most people are expecting, especially as the Game goes on and both teams are antsy that they aren't matriculating down the field like they had hoped. I saw one place that says the Over/Under for total Sacks in Super Bowl SVIII is 4 1/2. I can see five Sacks in this Game, and possibly more.
4) With that being said, both teams will try to open up the field in the Second Half after a tight, controlled and low-scoring First Half. That should open up the potential for Sacks. That should also mean that, at some point, a deep ball will hit. I predict both teams will complete two Passes that go for at least 20 Yards. For the Niners, those catching those explosive plays will be McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel. For the Chiefs, it'll be Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce.
5) By the way, Bill Vinovich will be the Referee for this, essentially, all-star crew for the Super Bowl. I hear he's a "have at it, boys" type of official, so I will predict no Pass Interference penalties will be called (even though I know the Referee is not the official who would throw those flags).
6) There is a decisive advantage when it comes to Special Teams. The Chiefs should wind up with better average Field Position than the 49ers. Moreover, I predict that KC Kicker Harrison Butker will make all his Field Goals (I'll say two) while SF K Jake Moody, like he did in the NFC Championship Game two Weeks ago against Detroit, will miss one ... and I'll say he'll miss it just before Halftime.
7) Also in Special Teams, I'll throw out an X Factor: Richie James, KC kick returner. I think he'll get one Kickoff past Midfield.
8) Both Reid and Shanahan have come under criticism for their Game management. There is general consensus from analytics that both Head Coaches don't go for it one Fourth Down as much as they should. Sorry to not pick on Reid, but I can see Shanahan doing his part to undo his team in a third Super Bowl. He will, once again, get conservative late in the First Half, opting to run the ball and, finally, settling for a Field Goal -- which, as I said above, Moody will miss.
9) Oh yeah. Travis Kelce: 75 Yards. He may get a Touchdown, but I can see San Francisco opting to make him disappear. The Chiefs will use a lot of 13 personnel (in NFL parlance, that means 1 Running Back and three Tight Ends) against a Niners Defense that hasn't seen that a lot this season. San Fran might get torched from that formation. But I can see Justin Watson or Noah Gray picking up a TD instead of Kelce.
10) Finally, in a tight Second Half where both teams are trading Punts but Kansas City has been able to push ahead because of Butker's FGs, Shanahan will finally have no choice late in the Game to air it out. Purdy, who has not been able to scramble for Yards because the Chiefs have decided to pen him in and make him win Super Bowl LVIII in the pocket, throws one final low-percentage Pass that gets intercepted by, oh, L'Jarius Sneed, who'll return it all the way for the final score of the Game, which will be:
Super Bowl LVIII Final Score Prediction: Kansas City 27, San Francisco 14. So I came up with that score because of the number 13. I'm no numerology fan, but with Taylor Swift being possibly the most important person at the Super Bowl, I had to notice all the times that number crops up here.
People has this article on how that number haunts this Super Bowl like a ghost. Like the 49ers -- 4 + 9 = 13. Today, the date of the Super Bowl, is 2/11 -- 2 + 11 = 13. This is SB LVIII, or 58, and 5 + 8 = 13. San Fran is the 1-Seed in the NFC while KC is the 3-Seed in the AFC: 1 and 3? Swift will attend boyfriend Kelce's 13th Game today. And while she didn't fly directly from her four concerts from Tokyo to Las Vegas (reportedly she touched down in Los Angeles and will reportedly eventually get to Vegas by car) a flight from Tokyo to Reid airport in Las Vegas is, you guessed it, 13 hours. And, oh, Swift's favorite number is 13, by the way.
That's too fucking freaky to ignore. So yeah, I am saying that the spread will end up being 13 Points. I'm actually more sure of the final margin than which team will have more Points. At any rate, since the Quarterback wins everything, Mahomes is the MVP.
Make of this what you will. Just have fun and enjoy the Game!
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