College Football Anti-Picks, Week 12

Record, Week 11: 7-2
Total Record: 38-45-2
Total Outlay, Week 11: $900.00
Total Winnings, Week 11: $1,605.33
Gain, Week 11: $705.33
Overall Loss: $128.77

Whew, I needed that week!  Let this be a tip for you, from someone who's unable and unwilling to put his money where his mouth is: In November college football you get teams that are good and are willing to push through the end of the season, and there are teams that are bad and can't wait for the season to end.  When one of each meet, in my observation, blowouts become very likely.

That's the general premise I used in picking five favorites that had to cover double-digit spreads, and only Central Florida (with its $100 bet) didn't make it.  On the other hand, I ventured out to lay money on two dogs.  The trends came through for me on Pittsburgh +4, but I underestimated Minnesota.  I thought Penn St. could have won that game, but they were nowhere near 2 1/2.  Good thing I only put down only $50.

What really made this a good week was that my two losses were only $100 and $50.  Meanwhile, two I wagered $150 on, Iowa -14 1/2 and Indiana -9, both came through for me.  Add that I parlayed that Hoosier bet with North Carolina -13 (is that the first parlay I've won this year?) and, in just one week, I lopped off 80-5% of my debt.

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There are many more lopsided games on-paper, and we're nearing the end of the season, which makes me believe more ass-kickings are in store.  So why am I balking at making so many plays this week?  Is it because I don't want to give back all of my gains after making so much headway last week?  Yeah.

1) West Virginia -6 1/2 (I don't see Kansas as the worst team in the Big 12; isn't that Iowa St.?  But the Mountaineers, although they have let many games pass them by, can score, and therefore they should go into Lawrence, Kans., and beat the Jayhawks.  Best Bet this) $100

2) Oklahoma -24 1/2 (Speaking of Iowa St., they travel to Norman, Okla., and face a Sooners team that has underwhelmed again.  I think Bob Stoops needs to whip the Cyclones to quiet any whispers [and they probably are just whispers; I don't see his seat getting hot because he's a virtual institution] ... but I'm not willing to lay a whole bunch of money down with that three-touchdown-plus spread) $50

3) Central Florida -17 1/2 (See, the problem this week is that the much-better teams are playing on the road.  Upsets are much more likely against a sparse student section that has found reason to get loud.  I'll still take the Golden Knights, in the driver's seat to take the conference's first, last and only automatic BcS bid for the American Apparel Conference on the road against what probably is the league's worst team, Temple) $50

4) Oklahoma St. -3 (Now I'm sticking my neck out here.  I predict that the rally his Texas players have made, all the way into getting into prime position for the Big 12 title, will allow Mack Brown to keep his job.  I don't know how he's doing it, but it looks like his recruits are playing for him.  On the other hand, I still am underwhelmed by Mike Gundy's Cowboys team, which still roams around the Top 15 of the polls despite not doing anything I see on SportsCenter or Fox Sports Live.  And this game is being played in Texas, y'all.  The differences, however, are the trends and Texas' injuries, the latest being to the Longhorns' starting Running Back.  If Okie St. is this good, they'll be able to manage Texas' running game and induce more turnovers on QB Case McCoy, who has thrown more INTs than TDs the last three games [five and four, respectively]) $50

5) Michigan St. -6 (I doubt the Spartans' overall strength.  In particular I don't know how they can score.  But they don't have to when they have a defense that stops everybody.  And even though I'm wary that they're going into Nebraska, it'll be a case of unmovable object against very stoppable force in Nebraska's offense.  I just didn't have good vibes about this game, but once I thought about it, I should Best Bet this) $100

6) South Carolina -13 1/2 (Steve Spurrier facing his old team, Florida, wounded animal Florida, at home?  I should Triple Best Bet this) $150

7) Baylor -8 (Hosting Texas Tech, which is reeling after having lost three straight.  This should be a case where the Bears just run away from the Red Raiders, even though I'm not getting anywhere near that damn Point Total of 84.5.  But I'll Triple Best Bet the Against The Spread) $150

8) Parlay the Triple Best Bets, 6) and 7), for $100.

So I didn't take this week as easy as I first thought.  Good luck!