Sunday, November 17, 2013

NFL Anti-Picks, Week 11

Record, Week 10: 5-3
Overall Record: 27-39
Total Outlay, Week 10: $800.00
Total Winnings, Week 10: $872.11
Gain, Week 10: $72.11

Overall Loss: $990.62

Hmmm ... I kind of felt good about the picks this particular week.  It didn't start out well, with two losses in a row, but then I ripped off my five wins.  I was on a particular high because I got right St. Louis +9 1/2 (even though none of us could have foreseen a Rams blowout in Indianapolis).  That continued when my Triple Best Bet, Denver -7, came through.  And I thought I was in for a bounty when I predicted Tampa Bay to both cover and win Straight-Up.

However, I lost $350 on the three bets I lost.  Not a huge setback, but I am very miffed that Tennessee lost to Jacksonville because that cost me a $150 parlay.  So I could have eaten about 15 or 20 percent off my debt.  Instead my profit is relative pennies, and I'm only a hair under a grand in debt.

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I really don't know where to go from here.  If I can find only a few plays, I should push more money into each of them.  Might be better that way anyway:

1) New York Jets -1 1/2 (OK, Rob Ryan gets to keep his job.  When you can cobble together a team that lost its starting Quarterback before the start of the season and who many people think is crap into one that's bobbing above .500, I think you're a good coach.  Buffalo, however, is as bad as I thought they would be at the beginning of the year.  I'm wary that this game is being played in Buffalo.  However, I am going to Triple Best Bet this) $150

2) Minnesota -12 1/2 (Maybe it's me, but isn't it possible, possible, that regardless of whoever is the Vikings' Quarterback [and it's probably going to be Christian Ponder], they can keep this game within ten points?  It's the NFL, so why the hell not?  Not going to bet a whole lot on it, though) $50

3) Kansas City +7 1/2 (I'm more and more convinced that the Broncos are only going to squeak past Kansas City.  This feels like the game in which Alex Smith's inability to throw the deep ball and possible indecisiviness will prevent K.C. from winning the game.  Plus, this game is in Denver, which is very important.  However, the Chiefs have a vaunted defense and Peyton Manning has gimpy ankles.  Obviously I would like the spread to be bigger, but I am going against the conventional wisdom that Kansas City is going to be exposed in this game.  Best Bet this) $100

No parlays.  Let's just see how many I get right before I sink parlays because I get one leg wrong.  Good luck!

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