Record, Week 16: 2-3
Overall Record: 43-56-1
Total Outlay, Week 16: $400.00
Total Winnings, Week 16: $286.35
Loss, Week 16: $113.65
Overall Loss: $911.00
My second consecutive setback, and I virtually am back where I was a few weeks ago: Four digits in the hole.
Now I understand the psychic, even existential pain of being a Detroit Lions fan. You have a home game against a New York Giants team that laid an egg at home, getting shut out by Seattle. Granted, there is some motivation to play a lot better, but they have been eliminated from the playoffs a long time ago, while the snakebitten Lions need this to stay alive in the fight for the National Football Conference Central Division.
So what happens? First, they are unable to shake the Giants. Then, with ball very late in regulation of a tie game, the Lions and Head Coach Jim Schwartz decide to run the ball and run the clock out. Finally, the Lions fail to score, and the G-Men kick a long field goal to eliminate the Lions, at home, in overtime, 23-20.
The inability to shake the inferior team reminds me of the time the Vikings lost to the Arizona Cardinals ten years ago -- remember, that was the game they were supposed to win but didn't, which meant that the Green Bay Packers won the NFC North and the ViQueens stayed home. The decision to shit themselves late in regulation instead of trying to drive down the field to win reminds me of -- gulp -- the Vikes' loss to the Atlanta Falcons in the 1998/9 NFC Championship Game. Both bad memories ... and the Lions experienced both types of chokes in one single game. That's harsh. So maybe Vikings fans don't have it all that bad.
The Lions wager ruined my parlay, one of the big reasons I'm under for last week. I also went Over on the Raiders-Chargers game, one in which they didn't come within ten points of the total of 51. I did hit on Carolina -3 1/2 ... barely. I would not have won that Best Bet if Cam Newton didn't drive all the way down the field and make that touchdown to win the game for the Panthers. That game was a three-point deficit for Carolina, and it turned into a 17-13 victory -- thus covering the spread by half a point. Thank God.
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I feel I have some reads. It's the last regular season week of the year, and there are games where motivations are quite clear. Saying that, when you come into a Week 17, there is always at least one team that has a chance to help its case to make the playoffs (usually at home) and don't win. I really want to parlay several choices, so I have to avoid that one fuck-up. With that being said:
1) Cleveland-Pittsburgh Under 44.5 (I think the Steelers are going to win, but the spread says 9 1/2. The Browns best play was in the middle of the season, but I just have this oogy feeling about it, and that oogy feeling doesn't cover a 9 1/2-point spread. Now, I'm a little more sure that Cleveland can't score 21 points. Eh, I'll Best Bet this) $100)
2) Chicago +3 (I keep thinking these two words -- home dogs. I do not know why the Bears aren't getting more backing. Yes, it seems as if Chicago chokes chances like these away, but Jay Cutler had his week of shaking off rust in last week's drubbing at Philadelphia [which, by the way, did not matter with regard to their playoff chances]. Meanwhile, this line moved Green Bay's way because Aaron Rodgers is back, but none of them are taking into account that he probably will be rusty. I don't think Rodgers will have a good game. And I'm not sure if Eddie Lacy's good enough to play and help Rodgers re-acclimate slowly back into the game. What I do trust is the Bears' passing game, which should have a field day against a Packers' pass defense which isn't great. Double Best Bet this ...) $150
3) Chicago M/L +132 (... then play them to win Straight-Up) $50
4) Dallas +7 (Same thing with the Cowboys. Both Dallas and Chicago host win-and-in situations in the final game of the regular season, and the oddsmakers believe both will lose. With the chance to reach the postseason, why aren't they favored? In Dallas's case it's the injury that took out Tony Romo. I think that's the best thing that could happen to them. Why? That forces Romo's replacement, Kyle Orton [which, by the way, is considered to be the best backup Quarterback in the National Football League] to hand off the ball to DeMarco Murray ... who will run that ball into a horrible Eagles running defense. They should have given Murray the ball a hell of a lot more than they have; if they did, they'd have won a couple more games and would not be in the position they're in now. But without Romo and the perception that it's his arm that will score Dallas points, they attack Philadelphia's weakness. I know that Dallas's D is terrible, and that the Eagles can score a lot of points. But they beat Philly earlier in the year by containing LeSean McCoy. I think a similar gameplan will also stymie the Eagles. Hey, Dallas is in their third straight Week 17 win-or-go-home scenario, and they lost the first two. Can they suffer a third defeat like this ... and the first one at home? I don't think that'll happen. Double Best Bet this ...) $150)
5) Dallas M/L +231 (... then bet on them SU) $50
6) Have to go whole hog ... parlay 2) with 4), for $100.
7) Then I will rope in both Moneylines: 3) with 5), for $50.
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