NCAA Tournament Anti-Picks, Round Five

Record, Round Four: 5-0-1 (that fuck you I said last round?  I take that back!)
Overall Record: 14-25-1
Total Outlay, Round Four: $800.00
Total Winnings, Round Four: $1,771.23 (!)
Gain, Round Four: $971.23
Overall Loss: $55.93

Hmmm ... so close.  Um, well, first of all, I have to admit that this round shows that I know nothing.  I came off a round where I had a few days to think about it, and I completely crapped the bed.  So I was in a very negative mood; I had no faith in myself to make picks, yet I had to make them in order to climb out of a thousand-dollar debt, and I had one night to make these "wagers."  So I half-assed it and made "bets" without thinking ... and as you can see, I went undefeated.  Nailing the two-leg parlay of Wisconsin +3 and Kentucky-Michigan Over 137.5 was huge for me.  I don't think I've ever won two totals bets in the same week, as I did with that Over and UConn-Michigan St. Under 139.5.  In fact, with the former finishing with 147 and the latter 114, I won both O/U bets comfortably.

If you go back to my Anti-Picks of that round, note that I was being pissy that my rule of only wagering only lines with a majority or plurality (if the same number of betting houses give two different lines, I don't bet on it).  One of them I wanted to bet was Kentucky as the favorite; I saw lines of -2 and -2 1/2, and since the Wildcats beat Michigan by three, I would have won anyway.  But the other bet I was denied making was Over on Wisconsin's victory over Arizona.  Three of them had 130 points, the other had 130.5, but the total only was 127.  If I was allowed to bet on the total, I would have lost out on not only winning the Badgers bet (although I would have still won the Straight-Up I put out on them) but would also have blown that parlay.

The only bad news is that I came up a free throw short.  Dayton, which should be in the Big East next year, was never a serious threat to beat Florida, but they did stick around close enough to push the Florida -10.  I saw the tail end of that regional final, and I don't remember if any Gator missed from the free-throw line as the Flyers began to foul in order to stop the clock.  If they didn't, they it was my bad luck a Dayton player didn't foul at least one more time to give the Gators one more chance to win outright.

If they did, I would have won $136.36 more, thereby erasing my entire college tournament debt.  And since only Florida remains from my Final Four picks, I think I would have stopped while I was ahead, because I don't think I'm able to make any more good picks, let alone go 5-0-1 in a week.  Nevertheless, I technically still am in the red, and therefore I still have more work to do in order to make a profit, or at least not lose money, on this year's Big Dance.

---

Nothing right now stands out to me.  I could consider going Florida-UConn Under 126.5, but I base that only on the fact that both teams' last games also went Under.  Kind of shallow to make a potentially tournament-ending bet on that.  Then again, I was just as flippant the last round, and it went great for me.  However, I have finally settled on one bet, which is:

1) Kentucky -1 1/2 (The Wildcats, the Associated Press Preseason #1 team, seems to have finally put it together, with clutch, tight wins over Wichita St., Louisville and Michigan.  With three straight barn-burner victories, I doubt any time could be flying higher or be more confident than the Wildcats.  It's as if they finally realized they are in the NCAA Tournament and that "all eyes on us," and finally decided to put their laziness aside and play to the best of their abilities and as a group.  And when they do, they apparently are tough.  Along with their athletic ability, I think there's a decent chance they can blow past the slow and unathletic [OK, I mean white] Wisconsin Badgers.  I am worried about the probable absence of Willie Cauley-Stein, but according to one reporter on ESPN.com, John Calipari will just switch to a more perimeter-focused game plan that actually better exploits Wisconsin's weaknesses.  Finally, if I am wrong about this Anti-Pick, I'll still have the National Championship to make up my money) $100

Good luck!