March Madness Anti-Picks, Round 3 (Scheduled Post)

Record, Round 2: 6-6
Overall Record: 11-21
Total Outlay, Round 2: $1,325.00
Total Winnings, Round 2: $1,762.69
Gain, Round 2: $437.69
Overall Loss: $237.01

Not bad.  Not bad at all!  Most of the surprises we all expected would happen in Round 1 actually happened in Round 2, most notably Duke losing to South Carolina (which none of us expected) and #1 overall seed Villanova losing to Wisconsin (which I totally nailed!).  I was riding underdogs again this round, and finally some hit.  In fact, I hit a three-team parlay on Sunday, wagering that Wichita St., USC and Rhode Island would all cover.  They all lost outright, but they kept it close enough that I won $446.84 on a $75 wager.  You know what?  That may have been the first time I hit on a three-legged parlay in Anti-Pick history!

That means that I ate about two-thirds of my Round 1 deficit over the weekend.  The deficit still seems a lot, but it's a hell of a lot better than what I was facing going into Saturday.  Here's hoping this is validation of what I think will happen!

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What do I think will happen for the Sweet Sixteen Round?

1) Oregon +1 (I am surprised that the Ducks, the 3-seed, are underdogs to 7-seeded Michigan.  Sure, the Wolverines are playing impressive ball right now and Oregon is without that front-court rim protector.  But from what I have heard that guy wasn't an integral part of the starting lineup.  I still believe Oregon is a formidable team, and with the line so low, I might as well put a feeler, both Against The Spread ...) $100

2) Oregon M/L +69 (... and Straight-Up) $50

3) West Virginia +3 (Well, I've been telling you all about my bracket in this massive pool I'm playing for, like, the 20th time.  My success or failure after stumbling with Duke rides on the Mountaineers.  If Bob Huggins & Co. can reach the Final Four, I probably have done all I can do.  If they lose, and the real test starts against Gonzaga, I will have succeeded as well as I have ever done in that pool and still won't be close to winning any money.  Frankly the Bulldogs scare me.  But the questions surrounding this Anti-Pick are the same ones surrounding the Zags.  Sure they're impressive, especially when it comes to advanced metrics -- but have they played anyone?  Meanwhile WV fought (and lost often) in arguably The Best Conference In College Basketball This Year, the Big 12, and their sabetmetrics were so good their 4-seed was an underseed.  I will feel sorry for Gonzaga if they field such a strong season and still fail to reach the final weekend, but dammit, I need this for my bracket!  So I am going to play this ATS ...) $100

4) West Virginia M/L +142 (and SU as well) $50

5) Xavier + 7 1/2 (They aren't Big Dance virgins by any means, but they as the only double-digit seed left in the tourney, they are by definition the Cinderella.  And even though I thought they were listing badly headed into last weekend, they are now rolling and face an Arizona club I still have doubts about.  So why not?) $150

6) Kentucky +1 (I have the Wildcats going all the way in my bracket.  I was hemming and hawing all the way to late Wednesday evening where I stumbled upon an ESPN.com article stating that only Kentucky has done what all other previous champions have either done or have.  Shit, that was good enough for me.  But after grinding out a huge win over Wichita St. in Round 2, they now face the other squad that scared me, one that I thought enough to put into the championship game -- UCLA.  Lonzo Ball may be the next Stephen Curry.  And don't let the talk about the Bruins' half-ass defense fool you; they have played better lately, and so their D is really, uh, average instead of awful.  But they have an exquisite, if not preternatural, offense, one I have yet to see on TV.  If Big Blue Head Coach John Calipari can force his team to play defense, I think they'll win.  I'm counting on it.  But if this UCLA O is what they say it is, we might be looking at something special and rare.  Till then, I bite on the skinny line and go dog ATS; I wanted to play the Cats SU too, but according to Doc's Sports, the only online oddsmakers giving odds for UK have them favored ... along with UCLA.  Can both teams in a game have negative odds SU?) $100

7) Wisconsin +2 (I could use the Badgers for one more win.  They can then lose in the next game to either Baylor ... well, I would prefer the Gamecocks because no one saw South Carolina coming.  But I really feel that this veteran-laden team can go toe-to-toe with a Florida squad that I still think should have lost in the first round.  So I'll Best Bet this, both ATS ...) $200

8) Wisconsin M/L +114 (... and SU) $100

10) Moneyline parlay -- 2), 4) and 8), for $50.

11) I want to hit another parlay, so let's go with two legs, and I'll select 5) and 7), for $100.

12) And just in case I'll gather the other three odds bets together: 1), 3) and 6), also for $50.