March Madness Anti-Picks -- Round 6

Record, Round 5: 1-1
Overall Record: 20-26-1
Total Outlay, Round 5: $150.00
Total Winnings, Round 5: $190.90
Gain, Round 5: $40.90
Overall Gain: $530.48

You know what?  I feel really good, deeply gratified, that I nailed the South Carolina cover.  The 6 1/2-point spread makes me think that Gonzaga were heavy favorites to crush the Gamecocks.  But even though they pulled it out in the end (thanks to a 7-0 run and a key foul on Sindarius Thornwell when the Bulldogs were up by 3 late), they got within cover by closing a 16-point deficit in the second half with a 16-0 run.  Now, South Carolina didn't make this game close by what I thought they were going to do going in -- rebounding and turnovers, as was their Giant Killers CV going into the tournament.  Actually, looking at the box score, they did induce a dozen turnovers on the Zags while keeping theirs to only five.  But they did get outrebounded, 41-36, and Gonzaga hauled down 31 defensive rebounds while the 'Cocks only came up with 13 offensive rebounds.  Beating a team that's better than you on paper comes down to generating possessions, and South Carolina just didn't get enough to beat Gonzaga Saturday.  That's why I didn't get money on my $50 Moneyline bet.  But due to their offensive prowess, they covered, and since I bet more money that they would cover, I came out ahead for the national semifinals.

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So I have had a successful, albeit fake, run in this year's tournament.  (Wish I could say the same for the two pools I had real money on.)  Just checked the line on tonight's championship game.  North Carolina is a 1 1/2-point favorite over Gonzaga, and the Over/Under is 153.5.

But I'm not going to make a bet on this game.  I don't have a dog in it, and frankly, if I somehow manage to fall asleep before the game starts I'm not going to be too bent out of shape because I didn't think either of these teams were going to make it this far, so who cares?  But this is a good matchup between two #1 seeds who managed to pick their way to five wins, so it should be a good game.  And one that is too close to call.  So if I have an imaginary profit of over $500, thanks to my massive second- and third-round wins, I think I'll walk away a happy man and just enjoy the game.  I think I deserve it.

And for those of you who are betting on it, good luck!