March Madness Anti-Picks -- Round 5

Record, Round 4: 1-1
Overall Record: 19-25-1
Total Outlay, Round 4: $100.00
Total Winnings, Round 4: $95.45
Loss, Round 4: $4.55
Overall Gain: $489.58

First of all, this will be my last time bitching about my bracket.  Going from 13-of-16 to 0-for-4, losing all two key picks late (Wisconsin and Kentucky) will do that to you.  I still am asking myself why in the hell do I continue to think I can actually win money thinking I've got this tournament solved, when I never do?  Hell, I still can't pick the Final Four teams!

Why?  Because when I make fake picks, I do alright.  My second and third rounds were fantastic, which is the reason why I have so much bankroll.  The Regional Finals were a hiccup.  I never should have thought that South Carolina was going to beat Florida by preventing them from scoring; although it is not characteristic of them, the Gamecocks have scored so much that 70 is the fewest number of points they have scored in their four games of The Big Dance.  And while that damn dagger by North Carolina ended any real money I could make, I was still assured that I would win money on the Wildcats +2 1/2.  I lost money in Round 4 only because of the vigorish -- $4.55.

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I don't have to make bets.  If I were in Vegas I had this profit, I would just leave and enjoy the money I made.  But one of the National Semifinals is too good for me to pass up:

1) South Carolina +6 1/2 (One final underdog to play, maybe, because the advanced metrics demand it.  In fact, this particular matchup appears in a recent edition of ESPN The Magazine.  In their annual (and increasingly shrinking) Giant Killers piece, Gonzaga is targeted as the type of team that can be exploited due to its generic nature, specifically their lack of excellence on the glass and when it comes to keeping possession of the ball.  The story names a team that can take advantage of those relative weaknesses: South Carolina.  The Bulldogs are still favored to win, so the Gamecocks will have to get rebounds and turn the ball over in order to win.  But the ability for them to do those two things is there, at least based on the personalities and statistics of the two teams before the tournament.  And I feel as though the Gamecocks are going to pull that off.  So I will bet on this game both Against The Spread ...) $100

2) South Carolina M/L +228 (... and Straight-Up) $50

Good luck!