Saturday, March 31, 2018

2018 March Madness Anti-Picks, Round 5

Record, Round 4: 7-0 (!!!)
Overall Record: 31-20
Outlay, Round 4: $550.00
Returns, Round 4: $18,067.64 (I will explain)
Gain, Round 4: $17,517.64
Overall Gain: $18,330.28

OK, real stuff out of the way first.  Loyola of Chicago is continuing its miracle run, and Buddha bless them.  Michigan really was the team I should have picked.  And I knew I was going to get screwed over by Kansas-Duke, so even though my real bracket picks have gone to shit, at least I nailed all my Anti-Picks, including both two-leg parlays.

So about that return amount ... it all hinges on that Ramblers Moneyline odd of -1.  I didn't know how to average the six M/L odds I saw on Doc's Sports.  The oddsmakers saw L of C so close to Kansas St. that three of them put them as the Straight-Up favorite.  What I usually do is average the odds, but with three of them negative (indicating Loyola-Chicago was the favorite) and three of them positive, I had to add them, which means adding to negative totals and subtracting from positive ones.  After doing that I got something around -6, so when you divide that by six, you get -1.

That's already a screwy number.  But I had no idea that it would bumfuzzle all the parlay calculators I used to compute the Ramblers' SU win as well as the parlay I roped in with the Jayhawks' M/L victory over the Blue Devils.  Those calculators couldn't agree on the payout for those bets.  I can't believe it.  The calculators could not agree on how to compute a -1.

I have no idea what to do except find some agreement.  It looks as though I have found two calculators that say that by itself, L-C, M/L, -1 at $50 gets you back a total, with original amount, and I'm not shitting you guys, $5,050.  And that means that with Kansas M/L at +135, a $50 wager gets me back (hold onto your pants) $11,8675.

I know it cannot be real.  But frankly, I don't have the brainpower right now to figure it out myself, and I don't really want to look at another calculator to see if they'd come up with an answer that looks realistic.  So hey, this has been the most lucrative betting season I have ever had.  More than 18 grand -- wow!!!

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So, I think I'm gonna stop there.  I have a huge bankroll, I don't like the Final Four lines, and the malaise I feel about screwing the pooch with my actual Final Four picks again has convinced me not to make any other fake bets.  I feel good about stepping away.  Don't need to make myself look like a fool again.  Sometimes you've gotta quit while you're ahead, even when it simply cannot be true.

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