Record, Round 4: 7-0 (!!!)
Overall Record: 31-20
Outlay, Round 4: $550.00
Returns, Round 4: $18,067.64 (I will explain)
Gain, Round 4: $17,517.64
Overall Gain: $18,330.28
OK, real stuff out of the way first. Loyola of Chicago is continuing its miracle run, and Buddha bless them. Michigan really was the team I should have picked. And I knew I was going to get screwed over by Kansas-Duke, so even though my real bracket picks have gone to shit, at least I nailed all my Anti-Picks, including both two-leg parlays.
So about that return amount ... it all hinges on that Ramblers Moneyline odd of -1. I didn't know how to average the six M/L odds I saw on Doc's Sports. The oddsmakers saw L of C so close to Kansas St. that three of them put them as the Straight-Up favorite. What I usually do is average the odds, but with three of them negative (indicating Loyola-Chicago was the favorite) and three of them positive, I had to add them, which means adding to negative totals and subtracting from positive ones. After doing that I got something around -6, so when you divide that by six, you get -1.
That's already a screwy number. But I had no idea that it would bumfuzzle all the parlay calculators I used to compute the Ramblers' SU win as well as the parlay I roped in with the Jayhawks' M/L victory over the Blue Devils. Those calculators couldn't agree on the payout for those bets. I can't believe it. The calculators could not agree on how to compute a -1.
I have no idea what to do except find some agreement. It looks as though I have found two calculators that say that by itself, L-C, M/L, -1 at $50 gets you back a total, with original amount, and I'm not shitting you guys, $5,050. And that means that with Kansas M/L at +135, a $50 wager gets me back (hold onto your pants) $11,8675.
I know it cannot be real. But frankly, I don't have the brainpower right now to figure it out myself, and I don't really want to look at another calculator to see if they'd come up with an answer that looks realistic. So hey, this has been the most lucrative betting season I have ever had. More than 18 grand -- wow!!!
---
So, I think I'm gonna stop there. I have a huge bankroll, I don't like the Final Four lines, and the malaise I feel about screwing the pooch with my actual Final Four picks again has convinced me not to make any other fake bets. I feel good about stepping away. Don't need to make myself look like a fool again. Sometimes you've gotta quit while you're ahead, even when it simply cannot be true.
No comments:
Post a Comment