Record, Round 2: 9-2
Overall Record: 18-18
Outlay, Round 2: $1,000.00
Returns, Round 2: $1,796.28
Gain, Round 2: $796.28
Overall Gain: $185.09
First of all, I must apologize for the typos regarding the double Butler picks, namely that I typed "$200" twice when typing the Against The Spread pick and then not even putting in a line nor an amount for the odds wager. I could say I was drunk, but I blogged that Saturday morning, before I was headed out to the MNUFC Pre-Match at Surly, so I had my attention focused elsewhere. My conventional practice has always been that the amount I bet on the Straight-Up bet is always half of the ATS bet. So, for 4), Butler Moneyline, the wager was supposed to be $100.
That Butler M/L bet is one of only two bets that I lose in Round 2. As I said last week, I use the surviving teams' performance in Round 1 to inform me for my fake wagers in Round 2. But I noticed a contradiction: I had said that I have wised up from my underdog fetish in previous years, and yet all my wagers were on the dog. I would like to not think I'm falling back into old habits. But in my defense, you have to admit that this college basketball regular season has been the wildest ever. Also, convention holds that upsets really start occurring in the Round of 32, after The Big Dance has shaken off most of its low- and mid-major Automatic Qualifiers.
So, thinking back on my thought process when looking at the lines last week, I really liked the underdogs. Didn't notice it until writing this, but of the 16 games in Round 2, I bet the dog on eight of them and the favorite on none of them. I won all but one of them, all but Marshall over West Virginia. (I did get lucky in that Seton Hall and Butler were wins because of the half-point hook.) And I parlayed four of those dogs into a pair of two-leg parlays and I won both, which might be the first time I won more than one parlay in an Anti-Pick blog post ever.
Without looking back on it in previous years, I swear that Round 2 has been my most successful round. I also think that my tendency to pick underdogs has been consistent in Round 2. Therefore, unless I'm recalling incorrectly, you can almost count on underdogs winning you money in the Round of 32. In fact, it feels like shooting fish in a barrel. I have half a mind to, next year, ask my parents if I could use their condo in Las Vegas, take off for Vegas as soon as I'm done with work Friday afternoon, bet, clean house, go to a Wells Fargo branch Monday morning to deposit all my winnings, and fly back just before rush hour Monday afternoon. I'd miss one day of work and more than make up for it.
(What I should avoid, however, is playing underdogs SU. I know I loved doing that in the past, and I got burned so much that I've learned to stop picking them. I still tried my hand on one this time around -- the Butler pick which I did not fully write out. I was worried that the advanced metrics would come through for the Bulldogs and upset Purdue, one of my Final Four picks, but alas, even without Isaac Haas, the Boilermakers came through, albeit without covering. Of the eight underdog wagers I made, that team outright won four of them -- tantalizing enough for me to think about making a real odds bet, but hopefully not enough to convince me I should.)
This huge weekend got me roaring into positive territory, something I hope to ride in Round 3.
---
The difference between odd rounds and even rounds it that, in the tournament's current format, you play the even games only two days after the odd ones. Players aren't as fresh and coaches don't have as much time breaking down film, spotting tendencies and devising plans to beat the other team. All of that is mitigated when you're coming off the weekend. That makes me believe that favors the, uh, favored team. So why am I being pulled toward the underdogs again? Uh-oh.
Lines courtesy of Doc's Sports:
1) Florida St. +6 (Gonzaga is another Final Four team I have. Scared as heck that I'll lose the Bulldogs to a Seminoles squad that is deficient defensively) $100
2) Texas Tech +1 1/2 (The Red Raiders are playing Purdue, so once again I foretell doom. In fact, I'm going to Best Bet this ...) $100
3) Texas Tech M/L +108 (... and then wager on them SU) $50
4) Syracuse +11 1/2 (That is one hell of a line, and you could understand it, seeing as the Orange is playing Duke. But the 2-3 Zone has perplexed both TCU and Michigan St., and even though Mike Kryzyweski has had five days to plan and practice for it, I'm scared as hell that Jim Boeheim's defense has struck fear throughout the tournament. I won't bet on them to win, but I'll bet some money that they'll make this a game) $150
5) Clemson +5 (Didn't think the Tigers would get this far. But I also thought Kansas would be upset by Seton Hall. This Jayhawks team isn't that good, so I think there's decent value to Best Betting the Tigers here ...) $100
6) Clemson M/L +185 (... and then picking them SU, just a little) $50
7) Parlay 2) with 5), for $100.
8) Parlay 3) with 6), for $50.
Good luck!
No comments:
Post a Comment