Let me say first that I don't have too much of a dog in this fight on an emotional level. Let me say second that I might be contradicting what I just said first by saying that I hate the 49ers just a little bit, but that's because they beat the shit out of my Vikings. But that is the only reason I "hate" them.
I like the Chiefs a lot. Well, maybe not Tyreek Hill. I want the Chiefs to win. However, after Kansas City beat Tennessee in the AFC Championship Game, a Native American journalist reminded everyone through a series of tweets (which is the source of this Business Insider article) that the name "Chiefs" came from a white man who, basically, wanted to play dress-up. I cannot be as offended as I am about this compared to the much worse Washington "Redskins." But frankly, maybe I should re-educate myself in to thinking this is not OK. And, also, this was a stolen team; the Dallas Texans were taken from Dallas after three seasons in the American Football League. These guys really are The Bastard Dallas Texans, even if no one in Dallas wanted them. And I have a principle of rooting against stolen teams.
So, I'm torn. Maybe that thus helps me to just watch the Game without worrying about who wins.
OK, onto the super-specific predictions:
1) I think SBLIV will start slowly. That'll be a combination of both offenses trying to feel the opposing defenses out and, according to advanced metrics, both clubs not being very good in the Red Zone. Therefore, I will predict that neither team will score a Touchdown ... in the First Half.
2) However, as the Game goes on, the decisive strength-on-weakness will rear its head. What is that? San Francisco's running game vs. Kansas City's run defense, especially up the middle. The 49ers will have success running the ball from the start, thereby depriving Patrick Mahomes II the ball. As they say, the best way to defeat a star Quarterback is to ensure he's on the sideline. And in the Second Half, as the Chiefs begin to get demoralized, expect to see gaping holes for explosive runs. In total, I think the Niners will run for almost 300 Yards and get one Touchdown.
3) Key to that running game is the ability for both star Tight End George Kittle and Fullback Kyle Juszczyk to block. And they will block plenty, and successfully. Neither Niner will rack up the Yards -- neither will get a TD -- but their blocking alone will be a huge factor in ... uh, I might as well let the cat out of the bag ... the 49ers winning Super Bowl LIV.
4) With the running game humming in overdrive, Jimmy Garoppolo will, once again, just need to show up and not fuck up. He'll be able to manipulate a desperate Chiefs passing defense with quick throws and RPOs, especially in the Second Half. But it won't amount to much -- just enough. He'll throw for, like 200 Yards and a long TD when Kansas City is gambling on the run to, oh, Deebo Samuel.
5) Thus, as such, the Time Of Possession battle will be lopsided. The Niners will have between 40 and 45 Minutes of possession.
6) I am convinced San Fran will win because they will win the trenches on both sides of the ball. Apparently, 49ers General Manager John Lynch said that he loaded up on a loaded front seven so he didn't have to invest on a world-class Secondary. And he'll be right. The front four alone should keep Mahomes nervous all game. Put the Niners down for four Sacks on Mahomes.
7) The only situation where K.C. has a sizable advantage on San Fran is when Mahomes throws deep. The 49er Secondary can be, uh, "getable." But, for one, Mahomes largely won't get the time, and for two, SB Referee Bill Vinovich has a crew that swallows its whistles. Now, this is an All-Star officiating crew, which means that Vinovich won't have the guys he has had all regular season. But I'm going to say that the 49ers Cornerbacks and Safeties will be handsy and grabby with the track stars of the Chiefs receiving corps, and the zebras will let them get away with it. So, maybe one Pass Interference call on the San Fran D.
8) With all that being said, the score will not reflect how in control the 49ers will be all Game. Mahomes will do plenty of scrambling but hit his receivers for many, many First Downs. Put Mahomes down for almost 300 Yards passing and one Touchdown.
9) Late in the Fourth Quarter, believe it or not, the score will be tied. The dam fill finally break in the back half of the Fourth as the 49ers just run the ball down the tired Chiefs' throats. San Fran will score the go-ahead touchdown with Raheem Mostert, who will rack up almost 200 Yards and be the Super Bowl Most Valuable Player.
10) And in a desperate attempt to tie the Game, Mahomes will throw an Interception to Richard Sherman, who will take it all the way back to the house to complete scoring in the contest.
Final Score Prediction: San Francisco 27, Kansas City 13. So if you're in Las Vegas, go Moneyline on the 49ers and bet your house. Book it!
I like the Chiefs a lot. Well, maybe not Tyreek Hill. I want the Chiefs to win. However, after Kansas City beat Tennessee in the AFC Championship Game, a Native American journalist reminded everyone through a series of tweets (which is the source of this Business Insider article) that the name "Chiefs" came from a white man who, basically, wanted to play dress-up. I cannot be as offended as I am about this compared to the much worse Washington "Redskins." But frankly, maybe I should re-educate myself in to thinking this is not OK. And, also, this was a stolen team; the Dallas Texans were taken from Dallas after three seasons in the American Football League. These guys really are The Bastard Dallas Texans, even if no one in Dallas wanted them. And I have a principle of rooting against stolen teams.
So, I'm torn. Maybe that thus helps me to just watch the Game without worrying about who wins.
OK, onto the super-specific predictions:
1) I think SBLIV will start slowly. That'll be a combination of both offenses trying to feel the opposing defenses out and, according to advanced metrics, both clubs not being very good in the Red Zone. Therefore, I will predict that neither team will score a Touchdown ... in the First Half.
2) However, as the Game goes on, the decisive strength-on-weakness will rear its head. What is that? San Francisco's running game vs. Kansas City's run defense, especially up the middle. The 49ers will have success running the ball from the start, thereby depriving Patrick Mahomes II the ball. As they say, the best way to defeat a star Quarterback is to ensure he's on the sideline. And in the Second Half, as the Chiefs begin to get demoralized, expect to see gaping holes for explosive runs. In total, I think the Niners will run for almost 300 Yards and get one Touchdown.
3) Key to that running game is the ability for both star Tight End George Kittle and Fullback Kyle Juszczyk to block. And they will block plenty, and successfully. Neither Niner will rack up the Yards -- neither will get a TD -- but their blocking alone will be a huge factor in ... uh, I might as well let the cat out of the bag ... the 49ers winning Super Bowl LIV.
4) With the running game humming in overdrive, Jimmy Garoppolo will, once again, just need to show up and not fuck up. He'll be able to manipulate a desperate Chiefs passing defense with quick throws and RPOs, especially in the Second Half. But it won't amount to much -- just enough. He'll throw for, like 200 Yards and a long TD when Kansas City is gambling on the run to, oh, Deebo Samuel.
5) Thus, as such, the Time Of Possession battle will be lopsided. The Niners will have between 40 and 45 Minutes of possession.
6) I am convinced San Fran will win because they will win the trenches on both sides of the ball. Apparently, 49ers General Manager John Lynch said that he loaded up on a loaded front seven so he didn't have to invest on a world-class Secondary. And he'll be right. The front four alone should keep Mahomes nervous all game. Put the Niners down for four Sacks on Mahomes.
7) The only situation where K.C. has a sizable advantage on San Fran is when Mahomes throws deep. The 49er Secondary can be, uh, "getable." But, for one, Mahomes largely won't get the time, and for two, SB Referee Bill Vinovich has a crew that swallows its whistles. Now, this is an All-Star officiating crew, which means that Vinovich won't have the guys he has had all regular season. But I'm going to say that the 49ers Cornerbacks and Safeties will be handsy and grabby with the track stars of the Chiefs receiving corps, and the zebras will let them get away with it. So, maybe one Pass Interference call on the San Fran D.
8) With all that being said, the score will not reflect how in control the 49ers will be all Game. Mahomes will do plenty of scrambling but hit his receivers for many, many First Downs. Put Mahomes down for almost 300 Yards passing and one Touchdown.
9) Late in the Fourth Quarter, believe it or not, the score will be tied. The dam fill finally break in the back half of the Fourth as the 49ers just run the ball down the tired Chiefs' throats. San Fran will score the go-ahead touchdown with Raheem Mostert, who will rack up almost 200 Yards and be the Super Bowl Most Valuable Player.
10) And in a desperate attempt to tie the Game, Mahomes will throw an Interception to Richard Sherman, who will take it all the way back to the house to complete scoring in the contest.
Final Score Prediction: San Francisco 27, Kansas City 13. So if you're in Las Vegas, go Moneyline on the 49ers and bet your house. Book it!
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