So everyone I see expects this to be a close Game. However, I just don't see it that way. The final margin of victory I have decided on might be decided late on a desperation pass that turns into a pick-six, but I see one team stand out above the other: The Eagles. Now, I don't like it. The Chiefs seem to be a good and likable group of people, and I love the way Patrick Mahomes plays. I like the city; been there a couple times, have been treated great (although the strip clubs could be a lot better). And I like the small quirks Head Coach Andy Reid puts in the gameplan to make the players remember that this is a fun Game to play, quirks such as the Ring Around The Rosie in their last Game of the regular season. Meanwhile, Eagles fans are assholes. I'll never forgive them for bullying and punching Vikings fans when they traveled to Philly for the 2018 NFC Championship Game. They also punch horses. And they horseshit. Really, they eat horseshit. What kind of human does that?
So maybe it's my pessimism that's leading me to thinking that the Eagles are going to dominate the Chiefs. But I think the Chiefs are going to have a bad Game, not dissimilar to their dismantling at the hands of The Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV. With that, I begin my annual Super-Specific Predictions For LVII:
1) The big reason I think the Chiefs will not be the Chiefs in the Super Bowl: I think Mahomes's ankle sprain is worse than the team and he are letting on. He is a capable, even superb, passer, but he pulls Games into his gravitational pull because he can scramble, improvise and extend plays with his feet. I don't think he'll be able to do that with his ankle sprain. So he won't run much, probably 15 Yards or fewer, and while I can see him throwing for just about 300 Yards and two Touchdowns, I think he'll be forced into two Interceptions. And he'll be sacked at least twice.
2) Kansas City lost SBLV because it went into the Game without their starting Tackles and the Offensive Line as a result got run over, play after play. They have poured millions of dollars into the OL since. And yet I think it'll get paved over tonight, too. Don't know why; every Chief O-Lineman grades out really well, and they're all healthy. But the Iggles' Defense is mean, and that Defensive Line is nasty. And I think Haason Reddick continues his superlative finishing kick, getting 1 1/2 Sacks. (Something to note: ESPN's Adam Schefter says that Defense guru Vic Fangio, who once had to face Mahomes twice a season as Head Coach of the Denver Broncos, has been signed by the Eagles for the past two Weeks as some sort of consultant to help with the Eagles' Defense. I didn't think such a temp job was allowed in the NFL.)
3) To counteract the Eagles' ability to rush Mahomes with only four players, I think Reid is going to deploy a lot of pre-snap motion, chip a lot, and rely primarily on screens. Unfortunately, that closes down the Chiefs' playbook, and the Eagles are going to do a tremendous job of shutting down K. C.'s deep game. I don't predict any Wide Receiver getting more than 75 total Yards.
4) And what about Travis Kelce, making a case to be The Greatest Tight End In NFL History? He won't burnish that case in SBLVII. He is Mahomes's brother from another mother, practically joined at the hip with him. But that means Eagles Defensive Coordinator Jonathan Gannon is going to aim his excellent Linebackers and Secondary to double- and maybe even triple-team Kelce. He's also going to do more than his fair share of blocking to blunt Philadelphia's Pass Rush. So even though I can see him catching a Touchdown, he won't surpass 75 Yards receiving.
5) Big Games seem to be the time when a person's worst tendencies come out, and I think (even though he seems like a likeable enough guy), Andy Reid will revert to less than his best self. He has a tendency to over-rely on the passing game. I think that, even with the short passing game he'll concentrate on, he'll abandon his Running Backs in very short order. Reid will call on a lot of jet sweeps, and screen passes will be thrown to WRs Juju Smith-Schuster and Marques Valdez-Scantling. Isiah Pacheco will be limited to less than 50 Yards rushing with no scores.
6) When the Eagles have the ball, there is, in my humble opinion, only one weakness: Left Tackle Jordan Mailata. He grades out worse than his linemates, and that should give the Chiefs Linemen who will line up opposite him, Frank Clark and Carlos Dunlap, chances to get by him and get to Philadelphia Quarterback Jalen Hurts. One of them is going to get a Sack in this Game. (George Karlaftis, the Defensive End on the other side of the line, will get one, too.)
7) However, Hurts is not, uh, hurt like Mahomes. Eventually, Eagles Head Coach Nick Sirianni will shift blocking and plays to the right to mitigate the relative weakness from Mailata's spot. Moreover, Philly will establish the run game early and to great effect. Expect Miles Sanders to be used frequently, and he'll churn out 100 Yards rushing and one Touchdown.
8) That will open up play action, and while Kansas City is a good Defense, I don't think they'll show themselves to be a great Defense in the Super Bowl. The analytics site Football Outsiders breaks down this game to a molecular level, and it reveals that the Chiefs can be exploited over the middle. Therefore, Eagles Running Back Kenneth Gainwell will be a surprising star in this game. He and not Sanders is the team's Pass-catching RB, and you'll see him slip through on checkdowns and be the hot Receiver as Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo calls for more and more Blitzes to rattle Hurts as the Game wears on in Philly's favor. Add that he will split carries with Sanders and I can see Gainwell, uh, gain 150 total Yards from scrimmage and haul in a TD.
9) I think Philadelphia will win the Time Of Possession battle and keep the Game on the ground, but the triple-headed attack of DeVonta Smith, A. J. Brown and Dallas Goedert will get their shares of catches down the field as the Chiefs try and fail to stop the run. This is kind of a cop-out, but I'll say it nevetheless: Those three players combined will get 225 Yards passing and two TDs.
10) The Chiefs have been garbage on third-/fourth-and-short all Year. They'll face a similar situation once in the Super Bowl and fail to make the line to gain on both that third and that Fourth Down.
11) This is how I see the end of the Game playing out. The Eagles will lead all Game, but be up by only a score (and I'll say eight Points) in the back half of the Fourth Quarter. In desperation and with the Eagles infiltrating the Backfield again, Mahomes will run, or try to run, on his gimpy ankle, throw deep to a triple-teamed Kelce and get picked off. And Jalen Hurts, who'll throw for about 350 Yards passing and keep K. C. honest with 25 Yards and a couple First Down pickups, will march the Eagles down the field for the dagger Touchdown. He'll win Most Valuable Player only because Quarterbacks always get MVP. If he produces in the way I think he will, Kenneth Gainwell should be the MVP (although I can see Haason Reddick deserving the honor if he goes buckwild like I think he could).
Super Bowl LVII Prediction: Eagles 38, Chiefs 22. If I were willing to bet, I'd bet on the Eagles to cover what appears to be a spread of between -1 and -2 1/2. And if I am wrong and Kansas City wins, I will be pretty happy to be wrong.
Enjoy the Super Bowl, everybody!
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