Overall Record: 13-14
Outlay, Round 2: $550.00
Winnings, Round 2: $659.48
Gain, Round 2: $109.48
Overall Loss: $235.52
I now think that I do better in the even Rounds, the ones with a two-Day turnaround after these teams' Games. It feels as if the combination of clubs scrambling to get intelligence on an opponent they didn't know until 48 Hours before they play them and oddsmakers scrambling to crunch all the data mere hours after a matchup is set creates latitude for me to bet smartly and well. I love the tournament -- well, I really, really loved it until 2011, when Turner horned in and foisted Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith upon us with college basketball knowledge they didn't garner because they haven't followed the season, but it really was ruined in 2001, when they went to 65 squads and had that first goddamned play-in Game, but I digress -- and I think the first Thursday and Friday of March Madness are The Best 48 Hours In American Sport. But having such success with Round 2 makes me think that if I want to make money, I need to stick around that weekend. And if I were to actually gamble in Las Vegas, even though I'd probably lay out a lot of money for Round 1, I'd make sure I at least put in some wagers for Round 2 before I leave. I kind of think that I would come out ahead.
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Unfortunately, Round 3 is upon us, and teams will have five Days to scout their foes. This odd Round usually does not bode well for me. And I still under. But I will fake-bet nevertheless:
1) Michigan St. -1 1/2 (Remember that the Spartans are the 7-Seed and their opponent, Kansas St., is the 3-Seed. Analytics thinks Sparty should win. And I have a personal investment in them emerging victorious: They are one of few outliers still alive in my bracket, so I need them to pull through here for me to have any chance of finishing in the money in the big tournament I'm in) $100
2) Arkansas +4 (Of all the teams I analyzed in the field, the Razorbacks befuddled me the most. They have two players, Anthony Black and Nick Smith, Jr., who are projected to be First Round picks in this Year's NBA Draft. And yet Arkansas kept losing to bad teams and bobbing just above .500. And then last weekend they upset Kansas. That makes me scared that the 'Backs are finally putting it altogether, and of course they would do so against Connecticut, my Final Four team from this region. Arkansas Head Coach Eric Musselman is an asshole [and a chip off the old block of his dead old man, Bill], so I am afraid that I am predicting good things happening to bad people) $100
3) UCLA-Gonzaga Over 145.5 (The Bruins have been excellent in Defense all season, the Bulldogs in Offense. What tips the scales for me is UCLA is out lockdown defender Guard Jaylen Clark, who is missing the whole tourney because of an Achilles injury. That makes me think this will be more of a shootout than it otherwise would be) $50
4) Princeton +10 (You should read the Bracket Busters stories on The Athletic if you subscribe. They haven't been perfect at all this season -- they missed hugely on Farleigh Dickinson, even though everyone did -- but their analysis as to why this matchup more favors an upset than others is well-thought-out. And even though the Tigers are facing huge odds against Creighton, the people behind Bracket Busters think they have a very live shot of being the first 15-Seed to ever reach the Regional Final. And I believe them. So I will Best Bet this Against The Spread ...) $200
5) Princeton M/L +396 (... and put some money down on them Straight-Up) $100
Good luck!
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