2023 March Madness Anti-Picks, Round 4

Record, Round 3: 1-4

Overall Record: 14-18

Outlay, Round 3: $550.00

Winnings, Round 3: $95.45

Loss, Round 3: $454.55

Overall Loss: $690.07

Woof.  Fuckin' woof.  Two days ago I extolled the virtues and joys of betting on Rounds 2 and 4 of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament because you can exploit the fog of oddsmaking and touting with the two-day turnaround time.  I wasn't implicitly saying the inverse was 100% true, that Rounds 1 and 3 are so difficult you may be better off not betting on those rounds.  Well, maybe it would be better if I took those Rounds off because I flat-out sucked the big one on the ones I chose last Round.  My fucking God, my instincts betrayed me.  I am glad I sussed out what was going to happen between Gonzaga and UCLA -- and by the way, it's a miracle that two great programs from different conferences have developed a tried-and-true rivalry just because of all their showdowns in March Madness -- but I was totally wrong on Michigan St., Arkansas and, worst of all, Princeton (although, not to sound defensive, I poured $300 on the Tigers based on what The Athletic told me).  The hole's not insurmountable, but it's huge and gaping.

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Luckily for me, it's an even Round.  Will basing a lot of my prognostications on what they did in their last Games be the wise move?

1) Kansas St. -1 1/2 (I just checked FiveThirtyEight; they have the Wildcats' matchup with Florida Atlantic as a pure Toss-Up.  That shocks the hell out of me, because I am ready to apologize to Kansas St. for underestimated them.  I never gave these Wildcats a chance of advancing this far.  They got a 3-Seed and we acted like the Selection Committee gave that number to them by mistake.  And they had certain characteristics of a Goliath susceptible to be felled by a mid-Major David.  But they persevered, especially in Overtime to finally put away Michigan St.  The Owls have been analytics darlings all season, especially because they were pursuing their own, lonely brand of existence, and no know-it-all likes it more than shoving their new find in the faces of their haters.  But here, I am going by the adage that when it comes right down to it, the higher Seed, and thus the group with the better overall talent, will prevail.  But I have no dog in this fight, so I think I will be delighted either way) $100

1) Florida Atlantic +1 1/2 (Yeah, I did that last/Friday night when I was really, really tired.  I'm going to reconsider, even though that very narrow line scares me.  Slingshot on The Athletic gives the Owls less than a 30% chance of winning.  But there is a reason I didn't believe the Wildcats were going to go far.  It's lost on me now [mainly because I'm still dealing with a water leak or six], but I am going to go with my gut and say Florida Atlantic, at the very worst, loses by 1.  Yeah, I might as well Moneyline this thing, but now, as I type this, I'm not very confident about any of this) $100

2) UConn -3 (The Huskies, of all groups, have been the most dominating team in this tournament.  Their three-point shooting woes don't seem to have hurt them much so far.  Gonzaga has been a much better defensive team lately, but I am going to say that their Defense overall remains average, and that UConn will be able to score against the Zags down low with relative impunity) $100

3) San Diego St. +2 (I'm surprised Creighton is favored.  FiveThirtyEight has the Aztecs winning, I believe.  I think that the Bluejays have had a relatively easy path to this point.  I also think their hot shooting will come to an end here.  And I think SDSU will ride their Defense to an unlikely Final Four trip.  I had no belief either club would get this far.  By the way, if I had more time, I would ML this too, but I don't because, you know, water leaks) $100

4) Texas -4 (The only remaining squad who, at least according to Seed, should be here.  Frankly, the way things are going now, nothing will surprise me.  Miami probably will run the Longhorns off the court.  But frankly, I have the Longhorns in the Final Four, so I need them to beat the Hurricanes here, and dance with who brung ya, blah-blah-blah) $100

5) And I may as well parlay all four together, for $100.

Good luck!