Overall Record: 13-16-1
Total Outlay, Round 2: $750.00
Total Intake, Round 2: $477.26
Total Loss, Round 2: $272.74
Total Winnings: $656.58
If you go by the chronology, I had a bad start but turned it around in the end with four hits. However, my two bets on Richmond (along with a parlay) really hurt me; Providence looked to be a vulnerable high seed, but turns out the Friars are where they should be. And that is why I finished in the red for Round 2.
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There are only two matchups that would be eligible to be analyzed by The Athletic's Slingshot: Houston vs. Michigan and Purdue vs. Saint Peter's. The model gives neither David a 33-4% chance of winning, which is my threshold to seriously consider an upset. But I'll do it anyway. Also, I'm laying out more fake money for this round because The Athletic's Austin Mock has come out with his model for how all eight Games are going to go and compares each to the odds in Las Vegas in order to find efficiencies. Unlike the last round, where Mock inexplicably did not model Sunday's contests, I see in his article him breaking down all the Sweet Sixteen showdowns, so I can fake bet on tilts tonight/Thursday night and tomorrow/Friday night.
1) Arkansas +9 1/2 (Mock's model has the Razorbacks losing to Gonzaga by only 7 1/2 Points) $100
2) Texas Tech -1 (It'll be stunning to finally see Duke Head Coach Mike Krzyzewski end his career on the sidelines. But his blue chippers have not come completely together, and the Blue Devils are facing a Red Raider buzzsaw. Gotta think TTU comes out on top here, and I don't know if they'll even break a sweat while doing it) $100
3) Houston +1 1/2 (Some advanced metrics rate the Cougars as the second-best team in The Big Dance, second only to Gonzaga. And Mock believes that the Cougars should in fact beat Arizona. So I will Best Bet this ...) $200
4) Houston M/L +107 (... and then bet on the Cougs Straight Up) $100
5) Saint Peter's +12 1/2 (Mock thinks they are too down in the spread by almost three Points. However, even though Slingshot doesn't give the Peacocks a chance to surprise Purdue, that team has already surprised Kentucky and Murray St. And I still believe that the Boilermakers have a shit Defense; if Saint Peter's figures out how to just score, they'll definitely win the Game. So I will Best Bet this ...) $200
6) Saint Peter's M/L +637 (... and also wager on the 'Cocks SU) $100
7) Kansas -7 1/2 (Mock has the Jayhawks beating Providence by just more than nine Points) $100
8) Iowa St. +2 1/2 (Mock says this is a tossup; in such a case, you have to bet on the underdog in Vegas, right? In fact, I'll Best Bet this ...) $200
9) Iowa St. M/L +120 (... and then have the Cyclones defeat Miami [Fla.] Straight Up) $100
10) Nine picks that self-sort into three distinct categories ... why not throw up three parlays featuring each of the above nine bets once? 1), 2) and 7), for $100.
11) Then 3), 5) and 8), also for $100.
12) Finally, parlay 4), 6) and 9) together, also for $100.
Good luck!
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