Super-Specific Predictions For Super Bowl LIII

So, after a one-year break, I'm back, not only predicting the Super Bowl, but stats and happening which I think will happen during the Super Bowl.  How much of it will come true?  Well, I won't go back to them if they're all wrong.

Let me start out by saying, without a bullet point, what the general key is: Who can set up the run better.  I know, I know, that's a very pat answer.  But it feels as though both the New England Patriots and Bastard Cleveland-By-Way-Of-St. Louis Rams rely on play-action.  So whoever can establish the run game first, and who can consistently run during the course of the game, should win the game.

Saying that, I can see the complexion of SBLIII change.  These teams appear to be equal in talent, so the decisions made by the coaches, Bill Belichick and Sean McVay, will take on added importance.  So I will go through my super-specific predictions in a somewhat chronological form:

1. I don't exactly know what happened to Todd Gurley.  I really don't.  And I believe that the surprise benching he has gotten late this season will continue.  He might start; he's the Rams' bellcow, and they've invested too much to just not let him start the Super Bowl, unless he's injured.  But he'll get, at most, 30 yards and maybe a vulture Touchdown.  The work instead goes to the fresher street free agent, journeyman C.J. Anderson, who will see a ton of carries and -- at least early on -- have some success as the Ram's Offensive Line sets an early tone.  He will finish with just under 100 yards.
2. You know how people say Belichick is best at locking down what he thinks is the opponent's biggest strength and making them beat the Patriots with something else?  I think he is going to stop the Rams' running game (numbers above are the Patriots stopping the run) and making Jared Goff throw the ball and win the game.  Goff has been shaky the past few games, and in the future, he is going to have more trouble shaking off a reputation (which may or may not have right now) that he is just an appendage of McVay.  However, I still believe that the wunderkind McVay will be able to see the Pats Defense create just enough holes for Goff to matriculate the ball down the field ... for the First Half, at least.  Goff winds up with less than 300 yards, but will complete, oh, two-thirds of this throws.
3. To me, this feels like a game where defenses will exert themselves.  And I believe one way it evinces itself is when the Rams have the ball.  I don't doubt that they'll find ways to get the ball down the field.  But you can't ever bet against Belichick just yielding TDs to the Rams.  I think this is where McVay shows his youngblood.  I predict Los Angeles will have many drives stall around the red zone.  Enter Rams Kicker Greg Zuerlein, who has been so automatic all year.  He will attempt, and make (and I know this is super-specific) five Field Goals in the game.
4. However, he will miss the Point After Touchdown on the sole TD L.A. scores.  Pure guess.
5. In the meantime, the New England Offense will have a hard time getting started because of the Rams' vaunted Defensive Line.  The key to beating the Pats is for Tom Brady to be flustered all game, and I think the D-Line will do that ... at least early on.  Nevertheless it should be a trying First Half for Brady as he gets acquainted to the Mercedes-Benz Stadium turf.  He'll be sacked three times in the First Half, once by Defensive Player Of The Year Aaron Donald.  And he'll throw a First Half Interception.
6. However ... Belichick is a master of Halftime adjustments, and having his Defense bend but not break in the First Half to keep the game manageable (New England will be trailing at half) will allow him to continue to use the run game.  And despite his Offensive Line having a crappy First Half, I think, with the help of some chipping by Sony Michel, James White, James Develin and Rex Burkhead, the run O will have a great Second Half.  They'll especially get runs up the middle and around left side.  With short passes to alleviate the continuing Rams pass rush, New England's Running Backs will total more than 300 yards from scrimmage and get one Touchdown.
7. That will help New England assert play action in the Second Half.  The Rams are very susceptible on slot play, and as the Rams (and Defensive Coordinator Wade Phillips) try to load up the box to stop the run, that'll open up the passing game -- especially up the middle, where Rams Cornerback Nickell Robey-Coleman will be put under the spotlight trying to hold up against Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan.  Eventually, as the Pats wear down the Rams D-Line, NRC will find himself on an island, and then running behind both Patriot Wide Receivers.  I expect both Edelman and Hogan to have big games.  I can even see Hogan gaining more yards than Edelman.  But I say both WRs will reach 100 yards and score a Touchdown in the Second Half.
8. OK, so this is where I think the game will be decided.  The Rams will win the First Half, but the Patriots will get back into it in the Second, so we'll be tied at 21 late in the Fourth Quarter.  Los Angeles is driving but is stopped on Third Down at the New England, oh, 45.  Does Sean McVay have Zuerlein kick it from 63 yards to take the lead?  No.  He'll instead go for it on 4th-and-short.  And be it run or pass, the Rams won't make it.
9. Now here is where it gets real interesting.  I think the National Football League is still smarting from the National Football Conference Championship two weeks ago, where Robey-Coleman absolutely plowed through Tommylee Lewis but was not called for Pass Interference.  The officiating crew, an All-Star motley crew arranged from the best of other crews during the regular season, will be told to call Pass Interference if you think there's even a whiff of that happening.  You know who knows that?  Bill Belichick.  So he's going to have Edelman body up on NRC and, on a pass from Tom Brady, Edelman will embellish close contact that will draw a foul on Robey-Coleman -- even though, upon replay, people will determine that it should be a no-call.  That will give New England the ball well within NE Kicker Stephen Gostkowski's range.
10. At the gun, Gostkowski kicks the game-winning Field Goal from 35 yards or less.  Super Bowl LIII Prediction: New England 24, Los Angeles Rams 21.  And Brady is named SB Most Valuable Player.

In other words, I see this going down closer to Super Bowl LI, when the Atlanta Falcons were dominating the Patriots, just to see New England able to chip-chip-chip away and, finally, secure the win late.  That's how I see it.  Now, take it to the bank!