Friday, June 12, 2020

I Know I Shouldn't Worry About Timing The Stock Market But ... Bad Timing

Since the pandemic lockdown began I have looked at my stock portfolio with a fine- -- well, a finer- -- toothed comb.  I had neglected it for months, even years until a few months ago.  But time, along with the extra $600 in unemployment I got from the government the past nine weeks, gave me the opportunity to look at, prune, and grow my portfolio.  Hey, the stock market has taken a beating these past few months, so this makes it a perfect time to invest.

And I have.  First of all, I have begun to ... I think it's called re-balance my portfolio.  Before the vast majority of my investment has been on one United States-based growth mutual fund.  That was a great engine for my portfolio until the coronavirus hit.  It was high time for me to diversify, and I have.  To what?  Well, that's where all this time has allowed me to look at some cheap individual stocks I could finally pour some money into.  There's a drug company I doubled my shares in.  And, among others, I poured in some money in a second drug company that has shot up tremendously in value.  I invested in four new companies more than a month ago, and they've rebounded from the lows at which time I jumped in with both feet.

My timing with those four stocks was good.  Yesterday, not so much.  For what I think will be my final new investment for a while (I'm back to working full-time so that extra $600 dole money ain't comin' in no more), I finally got around on acting on my idea to invest in Carnival Cruise Lines.  I know it was one of the cruises which had a nightmare situation where the entire damn ship got infected with COVID-19 (I think two people died there?), and with the resulting lockdown, no one was going on cruises and so the entire industry has gone to shit.  But that's precisely when you should invest in it!  I don't think shares will be this cheap for a long time, if ever.  And although I hate being stuck on those floating germ wagons, a lot of people love cruises, two of them being my parents.  So once (not if) the cruise industry rebounds, I'll be raking in the dough.

I just have to invest in it now.  But ... now-now?  Carnival has been well off its highs for months now, but it had seen a slight uptick in price.  So, just before I placed my buy order, I thought about whether I should wait, and also whether I should just buy 50 shares and not the 100 I intended to purchase.  "What happens if the price plummets the next day?" I thought.  I decided to bite the bullet and just buy the 100 shares (I arranged it to be bought first thing yesterday/Thursday morning when trading began) because those shares could go up in value and I would have to pay more for them, and I would hate myself for trying to time the market.

Well, the Dow had its worst day since March instead.  Apparently the zeitgeist is such that the worldwide spike in coronavirus cases made investors think the tourism industry is not going to come back as soon as they thought, so they just sold off their shares of any company in that industry.  And I just checked the current price of a share of Carnival (for some weird reason that stems from an acquisition it made a few years back, there are two separate classes of Carnival stock, each with its own floating price; I bought the cheaper one, which is based in London) and it dropped two bucks from the price I think I bought it at.  So that's $200 I lost.

I time the market even when I don't time the market.

But I have to let it go.  Can't panic now, dammit.

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